The Daily Populous Thursday March 13rd, 2025 day edition
Authored by forbes.com and submitted by Last_Programmer4573

An Italian SAMP/T. Italian army photo

One of Ukraine’s two SAMP/T surface-to-air missile batteries has shot down a Russian warplane for the first time. That’s obvious good news for Ukraine, which could rely more on the Franco-Italian air defense system—Europe’s answer to the American Patriot.

But the news belies the scarcity of SAMP/Ts—and their Aster missiles—not just in Ukraine, but everywhere.

“There is a confirmed aircraft,” Yuriy Ihnat, a Ukrainian air force spokesman, said at a recent industry event. Ukraine has received separate SAMP/T batteries, each with radars and launchers, from France and Italy. A $500-million SAMP/T battery can hit aircraft and missiles from 90 miles away.

It’s the only Western alternative to the Patriot, around six batteries of which Ukraine has received from the United States, Germany, Romania and The Netherlands.

Kyiv is badly in need of a backup plan for intercepting Russian planes and missiles amid the geopolitical chaos triggered by the increasingly Russia-aligned administration of U.S. President Donald Trump.

Demanding Ukraine end a war it did not start, Trump halted U.S. aid to Ukraine late last month, and only agreed to resume it after Ukrainian officials committed to a hard-to-enforce ceasefire framework that would require Russian consent—consent that could prove impossible to get.

German chancellor-elect Friedrich Merz was ahead of the curve last month when he called on Europe to achieve “strategic independence” from the United States, which under Trump has threatened to force Canada and Denmark’s Greenland to become part of the U.S.

Without reliable access to American Patriots, Ukraine could lose—at least temporarily—much of its protection from Russian bombardment.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visits a Patriot training base in Germany in 2024. Office of the President of Ukraine photo

The two SAMP/Ts and six Patriots the Ukrainian air force currently operates should, in theory, provide slightly more than the bare minimum of long-range air-defense coverage of the biggest Ukrainian cities. Last year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his country needed at least seven of the best air defense batteries.

The main problem with both systems is the supply of missiles. It’s unclear how many missiles Ukraine has received, but it’s worth noting that it was headline news when the administration of former U.S. President Joe Biden arranged for Ukraine to get 90 Patriot missiles from Israeli stocks.

U.S. firm Lockheed Martin produces around 500 Patriot missiles a year—and hopes to ramp up to 650 a year by 2027. A new Patriot missile plant is under construction in Germany, but will need years to tool up. Lockheed’s target for global Patriot production is just 750 missiles a year.

The SAMP/T’s Aster missiles are even scarcer. France and Italy ordered 700 Asters in 2022. France, Italy and the United Kingdom, which fires Asters from warships, paid for an additional 220 missiles last week. Some of these missiles could make their way to Ukraine. More likely, they’ll replace older Asters the three countries donate to Kyiv.

But European missile-maker MBDA needs around two years to produce a single Aster. That’s a few months longer than it takes Lockheed to produce a Patriot—and clearly too slow to save Ukraine.

zeroJive on March 12nd, 2025 at 21:56 UTC »

Everyone Liked That

EggplantBasic7135 on March 12nd, 2025 at 21:53 UTC »

I wish they would say what was hit

craigferg on March 12nd, 2025 at 21:40 UTC »

Every defense manufacturer must be desperately seeking the stamp of approval: Successfully Tested in Ukraine.