A sad trend in world affairs and one that is personal for me is the growing rift in the Atlantic.
I’m not talking about the geological one under the water (which widens by more than an inch per year) but about the geopolitical fault between the United States and Europe. As a dual citizen of the U.S. and Germany, I’ve taken the trans-Atlantic bond for granted throughout my life. But it will loosen, if not snap.
These two tectonic plates of geopolitics have long been moving in opposite directions. Several European NATO members have for decades skimped on defense spending, free-riding on U.S. military might and first frustrating, then enraging American taxpayers and policymakers. Even if some now spend more on their armies, the change may be too little, too late.
hmmokby on February 2nd, 2025 at 12:14 UTC »
In fact, the USA began to find the strategy of giving more freedom and role to allies reasonable during the Obama era. In this context, ideas such as the French-led coalition's Nato intervention in Libya were signs of this. There are 2 scenarios for USA. The strategy of waiting behind and then showing your strength, as before the World War II, and the other being the mistake made by the Soviet Union in offending its allies in Yugoslavia and China. Right now, Trump seems to be doing the second scenario to Europe.
Europe was sympathetic to the desire for strategic autonomy. At least some countries, including France, have this idea. However, Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused Europe to become even more dependent on the USA for energy and security. Another situation, if we leave Russia aside, is the fact that countries that are enemies of the USA, such as China and Iran, do not actually have a bad view of the EU as expected, on the contrary, they are positive about cooperation.
In a European scenario without the USA, would Russia become even more aggressive, or would it force the EU to accept some of its demands and seek economic gains and establish its influence through soft power, diplomacy, arms exports, energy resources, strong intelligence and diplomacy? The war in Ukraine may give the impression that it will become aggressive.
prustage on February 2nd, 2025 at 11:42 UTC »
This is a rather old article, written in September 2024, before the election in the USA and so spends a lot of time speculating on what Harris or Trump might do. Well we know now what Trump is doing and so it is time for an update.
custodiam99 on February 2nd, 2025 at 09:46 UTC »
I think the EU can stop the Russians alone. Maybe we should get 2000 nukes outside of NATO. Also if the USA goes alone, then the EU should consider the Chinese alternative. Nothing personal, it is just business. It is not what we want, but if Trump likes isolationism then we should consider alternatives.