The Daily Populous Tuesday January 21st, 2025 night edition
Authored by businesstoday.in and submitted by SolRon25

Former Indian Air Force (IAF) Group Captain Ajay Ahlawat has warned that India will be unable to defeat China militarily for the next three to four decades, saying that there is a need for fighter jet procurement as the force's squadron strength has dropped to a 'dangerously' low level. He also highlighted the need for a comprehensive National Security Strategy to align all armed forces towards a cohesive security objective, a framework he sees as essential to effectively navigate its growing challenges, especially with China.

"We need something like a national security strategy that compels all services to re-tailor their doctrines towards the achievement of National Security objective. From that doctrine flow our equipment, training philosophies, and tactical and operational deployment. There are various ways to tackle security - we can decide not to fight, or we can decide to go aggressive and fight. Our security strategy should tell us, what is China - a friend, a competitor or we need to go into a shooting war with them," he said in an interview with ThePrint.

Ahlawat said that New Delhi will have to manage Beijing through other means like diplomacy and alliances. "The gap with China is wide and it is widening more. What I'm trying to say is - militarily there is no way we can defeat China in the next about 3-4 decades. We will have to manage China through other means, through diplomacy and alliances."

"Our dispute with China is not civilizational, our dispute with China relates to a border that is ill-defined and both sides have different versions of that border. If you can come to some kind of middle ground and we have shown inclination on our part to make concessions...we've seen it after the Doklam crisis," he said.

The former captain's remarks come in the wake of growing concerns about the Indian Air Force's strength, particularly in the context of delays in the Tejas fighter aircraft program. While the IAF has been pushing to induct the Tejas as a replacement for the aging Mig 21s, the process has been slow, with the first 40 Tejas jets, ordered in 2009-2010, still not delivered.

Earlier this month, IAF's Chief Air Chief Marshal AP Singh flagged the delay in the production of Tejas fighter jets, which is being developed by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). Singh said the Air Force was yet to receive the first batch of 40 aircraft ordered in 2009-2010. His remarks came just days after China tested its mysterious sixth-generation stealth combat aircraft.

Ahlawat, a seasoned fighter pilot, said that the delays in Tejas production were partly attributed to external factors like the US sanctions imposed after India's nuclear tests. "In 1984, we conceived the idea. The first flight took place in 2001. 16 years of delay...much of it was attributed to US sanctions after we tested nuclear devices. From 2001 to the induction of the first squadron, it took 15 years, whereas there was a written contract to supply 40 aircraft by 2013."

"Now, the delay is being attributed to GE engines. Now, imagine if you go to war tomorrow or next month, then all these reasons will be useless. We need a ready-deployable Air Force today. If the domestic industry can provide them when required then they should naturally be the first choice, but if they can't and there is likely to be a delay - then we need to have some equipment at our disposal that we can use in case of a conflict," the former pilot added.

The Air Force veteran said the IAF has placed all its eggs in the LCA (Light Combat Aircraft) basket. There are close to 200 aircraft in order - three squadrons of LCA Mark 1, four squadrons of Mark 1A, four squadrons of LCA Mark 2, and six squadrons of AMCA (Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft). Among this list of 17 squadrons, he added, only three are visible. "Mark 1 is nowhere near. Mark 2 is still a cardboard. AMCA first flight is promised somewhere in 2028 - add another 10 years to it to be able to get airborn. So numbers are at a dangerously low level. At this stage, we are at the lowest squadron strength ever since Independence."

According to Ahlawat, fixing the Tejas program will take time and the suggestion to import certain numbers of fighters in the interim is only to make sure there is no hollowing out of our Air Force. "Our fighter squadrons are at the lowest since Independence. At this time, the deterrence capacity of our air force is very low."

When asked whether the import was evil, Ahlawat said the imports are "necessarily evil". He said when the government of the day asks the armed forces to go to war, it expects the Armed Forces to win that war - "whether you win it through domestic equipment or imported equipment, that does not matter." He further said that it was the imported Bofors Gun and imported Mirage 2000 that helped India turn the tide in the Kargil War.

In the face of these challenges, Ahlawat believes that India must continue investing in procurement and development, suggesting that adding more Rafale jets could be a practical short-term solution. "It makes enormous sense to just add more Rafale. We already have the machines, we already have the shops, we already have trained crew."

Ahlawat also compared India's defense modernisation to China's leap in military capability. "Somewhere around 2,000, the Chinese decided that they were ready to take the big leap. They set themselves a target of 20035 and they would be as powerful if not more than the US Armed Forces. And then the reorganisation started. We are still stuck in Jal-Thal-Nabh that is - Air Force, Army, and Navy. Chinese went further and created three more domains - space, cyber, and electromagnetic spectrum."

The former pilot said that the Chinese have a rocket force that can neutralise the adversary's airfield. "The rocket force would probably launch the first salvo and take out all the airfields that are of concern. They are thinking in terms of cyber capability, and occupying heights in space. There are certain orbital positions that if you occupy them it's equivalent to occupying a height in mountains. They're also making a lot of advancements in the field of electromagnetic spectrum. They are well ahead of ourselves there is no doubt about it."

AfsharTurk on January 20th, 2025 at 14:07 UTC »

The understatement of the century. India has one of the greatest potential in the world but by got they are mindboggeling inefficient and visionless. Their entire military acquisition process and industrial domestic policies are so beyond broken and stupid, and Indians would be the first to point that out. Entire new vocabulary, words and slurs have been invented just to describe the situation. The "Import Bahadurs" has been thrown around so much that its basically become a valid conspiracy theory among Indian military analyst.

Wgh555 on January 20th, 2025 at 13:16 UTC »

To fair India is protected from China by some pretty hefty mountains so I feel their military is more geared towards deterring Pakistan to which they outspend many times over.

Like is a full scale invasion from China to India over that sort of Himalayan terrain even possible?

Mrstrawberry209 on January 20th, 2025 at 13:04 UTC »

Understatement, China has been building up their military for years. But do they both lack in real time experience?