The Daily Populous Thursday January 16th, 2025 evening edition
Authored by inews.co.uk and submitted by theipaper

Britain holds a strong hand when it comes to both European security and Ukraine

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Keir Starmer’s trip to Kyiv, where he will sign a “100-year-partnership” with Volodymyr Zelensky deepening ties on defence, science, energy and trade, will naturally be welcome in Ukraine, but must be seen in the context of Britain’s immediate foreign policy objectives.

While Britain is one of Ukraine’s biggest and most important supporters – as evidenced by reports Zelensky will press Starmer for British troops to be used as peacekeepers in the event of a ceasefire – the US is still the biggest player in the Russia-Ukraine war. Despite resistance on Capitol Hill, the US has donated more than €59bn (£50bn) in military assistance, according to the Kiel Institute. For context, Germany, in second place, has donated just over €11bn (£9.3bn) of military aid and the UK just over €10bn (£8.4bn).

There have been major concerns across Europe about what Donald Trump will do when he returns to the White House on Monday. He has publicly said that he wants the war to end and previously claimed he could reach a peace deal within 24 hours.

However, he has not outlined what that entails nor his objectives. European security officials fear it could mean a handbrake turn on US spending or imposing territorial losses on Ukraine.

One thing we do know for sure is that Trump wants the war to end and he wants Europeans to take more responsibility for their own security – chiefly protecting themselves from an insurgent and emboldened Russia. He recently suggested that Nato allies – 30 out of 32 of whom are European – should consider raising their defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP, way above the current target of 2 per cent.

Starmer in the Ukrainian capital before talks with the President (Photo: Carl Court/Pool Photo via AP)

While Ukraine’s victory against Russia is crucial to British and European security, it is possible that Starmer’s trip has been timed to catch the eye of Trump, who might notice that many elements of the “100-year partnership” align with his priorities in both Ukraine and Europe.

If Trump does manage to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, it is unlikely he would want US troops playing any role in policing that deal. It is far more likely that he would support European troops playing that role.

As The i paper has previously reported, Nato officials believe that any credible peacekeeping mission led by Europeans would, by process of elimination, require British and French troops. That would require a major European security player, ie a nuclear power, taking the lead politically. With France in political chaos compared with the relative stability of Britain, that vacuum could be filled by Starmer and might be greatly appreciated on the other side of the Atlantic.

In terms of Ukraine’s post-war security, Starmer and Zelensky’s partnership deal will appeal not only to Trump, but to the other international partner Starmer is trying to woo: the European Union.

While the EU has donated a huge amount in terms of financial aid to Ukraine – over €42bn (£35.3bn), according to the Kiel Institute – it is not a military power in its own right. The EU is going through a challenging period, with populist parties performing well in opinion polls and elections. Many of those populists are sympathetic to Vladimir Putin and have been vocal in their criticism of supporting Ukraine. In some cases, these politicians are in power or part of coalition governments. Even in the countries where they are not in power, their growing voices in opposition can force the hands of governments, as has been the case in Germany, where the far-right AfD are on track to finish second in federal elections later this year.

Starmer, who is seeking to reset Britain’s relations with the EU, holds a strong hand when it comes to both European security and Ukraine. Britain is a leading military power in Europe and there is relative consensus among the major parties that it should remain so.

European leaders have previously told The i paper that any new relationship between London and Brussels would almost certainly feature defence and security at its core, with one source going so far as to say: “There is a lot of goodwill on the EU side for defence and security because we understand we need Britain – especially with the incoming US administration.”

Supporting Ukraine and staring down Russia is, of course, still in Britain and the West’s interests. Ukraine, against its will, has become the front line in a battle between the US-led West and Putin’s Russia. However, global politics is potentially about to change quite a bit. In that context, Starmer’s position might serve both Britain’s interests, and the interests of allies it is eager to please.

-------7654321 on January 16th, 2025 at 13:53 UTC »

It is not all Ukraine needs but it is not irrelevant either. My hope is EU will also stand up when/if Trump retreats US supoort

Suspicious_Loads on January 16th, 2025 at 13:47 UTC »

UK can talk but they don't have the power to actually do something significant without US/EU.

theipaper on January 16th, 2025 at 13:40 UTC »

Keir Starmer’s trip to Kyiv, where he will sign a “100-year-partnership” with Volodymyr Zelensky deepening ties on defence, science, energy and trade, will naturally be welcome in Ukraine, but must be seen in the context of Britain’s immediate foreign policy objectives

It is possible that Starmer’s trip has been timed to catch the eye of Trump, who might notice that many elements of the “100-year partnership” align with his priorities in both Ukraine and Europe

In terms of Ukraine’s post-war security, Starmer and Zelensky’s partnership deal will appeal not only to Trump, but to the other international partner Starmer is trying to woo: the European Union