The Daily Populous Tuesday December 3rd, 2024 morning edition
Authored by foreignpolicy.com and submitted by foreignpolicymag

Georgian authorities have responded to protesters with heavy-handed tactics. They have used water cannons, tear gas, and anti-riot forces, targeting journalists and arresting activists in an effort to weaken the protests and deter further dissent. These tactics, reminiscent of those used by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko, indicate a dangerous shift toward authoritarianism.

Georgia is at a turning point. Demonstrations have spread across the country in response to the ruling Georgian Dream’s shocking decision to suspend Georgia’s European Union membership process, started in 2022, after the opposition accused it of rigging a victory in the October parliamentary elections. The events bring to mind the 2014 Maidan Revolution, when Ukrainians protested then-President Viktor Yanukovych’s decision to pull Ukraine away from the EU and closer to Russia.

It is unclear why Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced Georgia’s withdrawal from the EU accession process until 2028 now, but he wouldn’t have done so without the direction of Bidzina Ivanishvili, Georgia’s richest man and founder of Georgian Dream. While Kobakhidze accused the EU of blackmailing Georgia in his Nov. 28 statement announcing the move, his party had just campaigned for reelection promising to support EU membership. Perhaps the move was intended to preempt the expected suspension of the accession process by the EU in December; the European Parliament last week described the voting process in the October elections as “neither free nor fair” and adopted a resolution declaring the results invalid. Or perhaps it was intended to provoke protests, thus giving the government an opportunity to crush all dissent, just as Lukashenko did in Belarus in 2020.

If the latter is true, though, that strategy appears to be failing. The scale and scope of ongoing protests are unprecedented in Georgia. They are self-organized, with no single political leader or organization driving them, and are occurring in Tbilisi, the capital, but also in other large cities and even some villages. This grassroots mobilization highlights the Georgian people’s determination to keep their country on a European path.

Georgia’s institutions are showing signs of cracks. Civil servants from the ministries of defense, foreign affairs, education, and justice and other agencies have issued joint statements to distance themselves from the prime minister’s announcement. Several diplomats, including Georgia’s ambassador to the United States, have resigned.

The outcome of this standoff may hinge on the actions of security forces, law enforcement, and the military. If there are more high-ranking resignations, especially from the security services, Georgian Dream’s grip could slip. Another tipping point could be if police disobey orders to use lethal force against protesters. Already, the silence of Georgia’s military may indicate its preference to side with the country’s commander in chief, President Salome Zourabichvili.

For her part, Zourabichvili has refused to recognize the seating of Parliament, which four parties backing a pro-European charter have boycotted. Her refusal renders the current actions of the Georgian Dream-only Parliament unconstitutional. Zourabichvili has stood with protesters in the streets and has created a national unity council, designed to prepare the way for new elections.

Her efforts have borne fruit, with opposition parties showing unusual cohesion. But the president’s ability to drive change will remain limited without strong, immediate support from Brussels and Washington, even as the latter is distracted with its own presidential transition.

The days ahead will be critical. Georgia’s future remains deeply uncertain, and the stakes for the country’s democracy, let alone its European aspirations, could not be higher. Over the weekend, the United States suspended its strategic partnership with Georgia, but U.S. and European leaders can and should do more—and fast.

To this end, Georgia’s Western allies should declare that the October elections were fraudulent and thus the seating of the new Parliament and reestablishment of a Georgian Dream government—without the required approval of the Georgian president—are illegitimate and unconstitutional; there will be no recognition of Georgia’s government until new, free and fair elections are held.

They should also impose immediate and public sanctions on Ivanishvili and his associated business interests as a direct consequence for his role in undermining democratic processes, as well as provide strong political and diplomatic backing for Zourabichvili in her efforts to bring about new, free and fair elections, thus creating a path for democratic renewal. Lastly, they should call on the Georgian military and security services to uphold the country’s constitution, even if this means refusing to obey orders from the illegitimate government.

Russia is determined to flip governments in its near neighborhood, whether through presidential elections in Romania, general elections in Bulgaria, gas price pressure in Moldova, or fraudulent elections in Georgia. The West needs its own strategy to prevent Russia from succeeding. Georgia is now ground zero. The decisions made in the coming days will determine whether the country reinforces its democracy and moves closer to Europe or slides further into authoritarianism and Moscow’s orbit. And this, in turn, will inform Russia’s policies in the wider region.

memeintoshplus on December 3rd, 2024 at 03:06 UTC »

Would say that Georgia is very lucky right now that Russia is too tied up in Ukraine to use their hard military power in Georgia in any significant capacity, if Russia is capable of escalating militarily in Georgia they almost certainly would if there's a potential that Georgian Dream wouldn't remain in power

UnexpectedLizard on December 2nd, 2024 at 23:25 UTC »

Maidan only succeeded in 2014 after friendly military personnel in Lviv gave protestors access to weapons.

Unless protestors can get large-scale access to arms, a revolution is unlikely.

foreignpolicymag on December 2nd, 2024 at 17:11 UTC »

Georgia is at a turning point. Demonstrations have spread across the country in response to the ruling Georgian Dream’s shocking decision to suspend Georgia’s European Union membership process, started in 2022, after the opposition accused it of rigging a victory in the October parliamentary elections. The events bring to mind the 2014 Maidan Revolution, when Ukrainians protested then-President Viktor Yanukovych’s decision to pull Ukraine away from the EU and closer to Russia.

Georgian authorities have responded to protesters with heavy-handed tactics. They have used water cannons, tear gas, and anti-riot forces, targeting journalists and arresting activists in an effort to weaken the protests and deter further dissent. These tactics, reminiscent of those used by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko, indicate a dangerous shift toward authoritarianism.

Georgia’s future remains deeply uncertain, and the stakes for the country’s democracy, let alone its European aspirations, could not be higher.

By Ia Meurmishvili, an independent journalist and commentator, and former Managing Editor of Voice of America’s Georgian language service.