The Daily Populous Thursday November 28th, 2024 morning edition
Authored by theguardian.com and submitted by DomesticErrorist22

Russia’s acts of sabotage against western targets may eventually prompt Nato to consider invoking the alliance’s Article 5 mutual defence clause, the head of Germany’s foreign intelligence service has warned.

Speaking at an event of the German Council of Foreign Relations (DGAP) think tank in Berlin on Wednesday, BND chief Bruno Kahl said he expected Moscow to further step up its hybrid warfare.

“The extensive use of hybrid measures by Russia increases the risk that Nato will eventually consider invoking its Article 5 mutual defence clause,” he noted.

“At the same time, the increasing ramp up of the Russian military potential means a direct military confrontation with Nato becomes one possible option for the Kremlin.”

Under Article 5, if a Nato member comes under attack, the other members of the alliance are obliged to help it respond.

Nato and western intelligence services have warned that Russia is behind a growing number of hostile activities across the Euro-Atlantic area, ranging from repeated cyber attacks to Moscow-linked arson – all of which Russia denies.

Kahl said Russia’s military would likely be capable of attacking Nato by the end of the decade, adding that Moscow’s war on Ukraine meant that it had battle-proven troops under its command which raised the threat emanating from its conventional forces, while it also mastered modern drone warfare.

According to the assessment of his experts, high-ranking officials in the Russian defence ministry doubt whether Nato’s Article 5 including US protective measures for Europe would actually be invoked in case of an emergency, the intel chief said.

“We don’t have any indication yet that Russia intends to go to war, but if such sentiments gain the upper hand in the government in Moscow, then the risk for a military confrontation will grow over the coming years.”

Should Russia attack one or several Nato allies, it would not do so to grab massive swathes of land, Kahl said, but rather to test red lines set by the west with the aim of defeating western unity and Nato as a defensive alliance.

“In Russia’s view, this goal would be reached if Article 5 were to remain without effect in case of a Russian attack,” he said.

“To meet this target, you don’t need to send tank armies westwards, it is enough to dispatch little green men to the Baltics to protect allegedly threatened Russian minorities or adjust borders on [the Norwegian Arctic archipelago] Svalbard.”

restore_democracy on November 27th, 2024 at 23:23 UTC »

How are these not acts of war?

HotTubMike on November 27th, 2024 at 22:57 UTC »

One of the fundamental problems with NATO is its very likely countries will disagree on what constitutes a trigger of article 5 when Russia starts pushing grey-zone operations against members states.

There’s a huge amount of things Russia could do or cause to be done some will consider an article 5 trigger and some won’t.

Alliances are great in some ways and liabilities in some ways. It is an advantage to have one decision maker directing events in times of conflict. Needing consensus and agreement between lots of parties with their own interests is unwieldy and messy.

Somhlth on November 27th, 2024 at 22:40 UTC »

Should trigger NATO defence clause.

Edit: typo