The Daily Populous Tuesday November 5th, 2024 evening edition
Authored by newsweek.com and submitted by Individual-Day-8915

Polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight has suddenly named Vice President Kamala Harris its favorite to win the White House, on Election Day, for the first time since October 17.

The race has long been neck and neck with any polling leads enjoyed by either candidate held with razor-thin margins.

FiveThirtyEight has had former President Donald Trump as its favorite to win for around two weeks, right up until Monday, when it found that, of 100 simulations, Trump won 53 times and Harris won 47 times.

But, in an update on Election Day, Harris came out as the favorite, winning 50 times out of 100 over Trump winning 49 times out of 100.

The last time FiveThirtyEight had the vice president as the favorite to win based on this model, which uses polling, economic and demographic data, was on October 17, when Harris was found to win 52 times out of 100, over Trump winning 48 times out of 100.

There is a less than one in 100 chance of there being no Electoral College winner, the polling aggregator said.

Similarly, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver, who is no longer associated with the site, has technically called it for Harris. In his final election forecast with FiveThirtyEight's "direct descendant," the Silver Bulletin, he picked Harris as the favorite to win by a razor-thin edge.

Out of 80,000 simulations, Harris won in 50.015 percent of cases, while Trump won in 49.65 percent of cases, per Silver's model. Some 270 simulations resulted in a 269-269 Electoral College tie.

Silver cautioned in his Election Day newsletter: "When I say the odds in this year's presidential race are about as close as you can possibly get to 50/50, I'm not exaggerating.

"It's not because my default is to hedge or just throw some extra uncertainty parameters in the model for no reason. This is my fifth presidential election—and my ninth general election overall, counting midterms—and there has never been anything like this."

Newsweek has contacted teams for Harris and Trump, via email outside of normal working hours, for comment.

Kamala Harris at Muhlenberg College in Allentown, Pennsylvania, Monday, Nov. 4, 2024. FiveThirtyEight has listed VP Harris as the favorite to win for the first time since October 17. Kamala Harris at Muhlenberg College in Allentown, Pennsylvania, Monday, Nov. 4, 2024. FiveThirtyEight has listed VP Harris as the favorite to win for the first time since October 17. AP

The day before the election saw Harris campaigning in Pennsylvania—its 19 electoral votes make it the largest prize among the battleground states that are set to determine the winner of the Electoral College. Trump held rallies in North Carolina and Pennsylvania before ending his campaign with a rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan, on Monday night.

Newsweek has rounded up what the latest polls and forecasts say about both candidates' chances of winning the White House here.

middlebird on November 5th, 2024 at 15:31 UTC »

Dear college age redditors.

I know you have a lot of other things going on right now that take priority over voting.

Could you please do us all a favor and take a bit of time out of your day to vote?

I didn’t vote when I was in college back in the late 90s, and I regret it.

martapap on November 5th, 2024 at 15:14 UTC »

Just actually vote people. Don't assume anything. I remember 2016. Hillary had a 97% chance of winning on election day according to the nyt. And I remember how that percentage started dropping when ballots started coming in.

Gymrat777 on November 5th, 2024 at 15:09 UTC »

There's another poll going on right now - it's called Voting Day, go participate.