Nevada Analyst Says Kamala Harris Wins Swing State in Final Prediction

Nevada political analyst and columnist Jon Ralston predicts that Vice President Kamala Harris will narrowly win the swing state on Tuesday thanks to independent voters.

In a blog post on Monday, Ralston, the editor of The Nevada Independent who is renowned for his forecast predictions, said that he expects Harris to beat former President Donald Trump 48.5 percent to 48.2 percent, with 3.3 percent of the overall vote going to other candidates.

Ralston wrote in his prediction that the "key to this election has always been which way the non-major-party voters break because they have become the plurality in the state."

"They are going to make up 30 percent or so of the electorate and if they swing enough towards Harris, she will win Nevada," Ralston wrote, adding, "I think they will."

Ralston acknowledged in his prediction that Republican voters have turned out in unprecedented numbers during early voting in Nevada. Per the Nevada Secretary of State's office, over 37,000 more Republicans showed up to the state's second week of early voting than Democrats, which ran between October 26 and November 1.

But as Ralston wrote, there are "a lot of nonpartisans who are closet Democrats who were purposely registered by Democrat-aligned groups as nonpartisans."

"The machine knows who they are and will get them to vote," he added. "It will be just enough to overcome the Republican lead – along with women motivated by abortion and crossover votes that issue also will cause."

Democratic presidential nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a "When We Vote We Win" campaign rally at Craig Ranch Amphitheater on October 31, 2024, in North Las Vegas, Nevada. Harris is forecasted... Democratic presidential nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a "When We Vote We Win" campaign rally at Craig Ranch Amphitheater on October 31, 2024, in North Las Vegas, Nevada. Harris is forecasted to win Nevada on Tuesday, according to journalist Jon Ralston. More Ethan Miller/Getty Images

According to 538, as of Monday, Nevada is considered a tie between Harris and Trump, with the former president leading by just 0.3 points on average across statewide polling. Trump lost Nevada in both 2016 and 2020, with President Joe Biden winning the state and its 6 electoral votes by 2.4 points over Trump four years ago.

Per tracking from RealClearPolling, Trump is up by 1 point on average in Nevada. The swing state, however, is considered a "toss-up" by RCP's election forecast.

In a poll released Sunday by The New York Times and Siena College, which 538 considers the most accurate pollster of the 2024 election, Harris was up in Nevada by 3 points, leading Trump 49 percent to 46 percent among 1,010 likely voters.

The same results found that Harris held a 22-point lead among likely women voters in the state (59 percent to 37 percent), while Trump was up with male voters (55 percent to 39 percent). Over half (51 percent) of the likely Nevada voters surveyed by the Times said they intend to back Harris on Tuesday. In comparison, 43 percent of independents in the state plan to back Trump.

In the final poll from Emerson College and The Hill published on Monday, Harris and Trump were found tied at 48 percent each, based on the responses of 840 likely Nevada voters. That poll, however, found Trump leading among independents—while 35 percent of unregistered voters said they plan to back Harris, 38.7 percent said they plan to vote for the former president.

Newsweek reached out to Harris and Trump's campaigns for comment via email on Monday.

Update 11/04/24, 6:08 p.m. ET: This story has been updated with additional information and background.