Election prediction markets tilted heavily towards Vice President Kamala Harris overnight after a bombshell poll released Saturday showed her ahead of former President Donald Trump in Iowa.
A Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll found the Democratic nominee three points up on her GOP opponent, 47% to 44%, among likely voters.
It won't put Harris ahead in our forecast because there was also another Iowa poll out today that was good for Trump.
“It won’t put Harris ahead in our forecast because there was also another Iowa poll out today that was good for Trump.
Kalshi's website shows Donald Trump and Kamala Harris tied on the company's elections prediction market.
Another betting service, PredictIt , which began pricing in a narrow Harris victory on Friday, saw her gain breathing room following the Iowa poll.
Meanwhile, Election Betting Odds —a site that tracks and analyzes election prediction markets Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt along with Betfair, and Smarkets—gave Trump a 52 percent chance of winning the electoral college Sunday, down 4.4 percent in the last day. »