Amid this year's U.S. Senate race, pollster Ivan Moore predicted on Saturday that Senator Ted Cruz, a Texas Republican, is going to "lose for sure" against his Democratic opponent, Representative Colin Allred.
Cruz is facing Allred, a three-term congressman from Dallas, in a closely watched race that could determine which party wins control of the U.S. Senate.
Republicans are hoping to seize the Senate in this month's election after failing to do so in 2022 when a widely forecast "red wave" failed to materialize. There are currently 51 Democratic-aligned senators versus 49 Republican senators, though the GOP is widely expected to pick up the West Virginia seat currently occupied by independent Senator Joe Manchin who is not seeking reelection. Cruz's Senate seat, which he only held by less than 3 percent of the vote in 2018, is one of the most vulnerable to being flipped by the Democrats.
In a post on X, formerly Twitter, Moore, a pollster for the Alaska Survey Research, noted that while the presidential race in Texas is "going to be close," he predicted that Cruz "is gonna lose for sure."
"Is Kamala Harris going to win Texas? I think it's going to be close! Ted Cruz is gonna lose, for sure," he wrote.
In a separate post on X, Moore suggested that polls have Allred running ahead of Cruz and wrote, "The polls had Allred consistently running 4/5 pts better against Cruz than Harris against Trump. Texas always an outlier, but Cruz's days are numbered."
In an Emerson College poll of about 800 likely voters conducted between October 18 and 21 places the two candidates within 1.5 points of each other.
Other recent polls show Cruz leading by between one and seven points in Texas where voters have not elected a Democrat to a statewide office in 30 years.
According to the most recent poll conducted by Cygnal between October 26 and 28 with 600 likely voters, Cruz leads Allred by 4 points, with 49 percent to Allred's 45 percent.
A Texas Senate poll was conducted by ActiVote between October 1 and 16, with 400 likely voters in the state polled. The survey gave Cruz a 6-point lead, with 53 percent of the vote against 47 percent for Allred, ahead of the 4.9 percent margin of error.
A Morning Consult polled 2,048 likely Texan voters between October 6 and 15, giving Cruz a one-point lead, with 46 percent of the vote against 45 percent. Notably, a previous Morning Consult survey conducted between September 9 and 18 put Allred ahead by one point.
Newsweek has reached out to Cruz and Allred's campaigns via email for comment.
Senator Ted Cruz, a Texas Republican, is seen on October 31 in Killeen, Texas. Amid this year's U.S. Senate race, pollster Ivan Moore predicted on Saturday that Cruz is going to "lose for sure" against... Senator Ted Cruz, a Texas Republican, is seen on October 31 in Killeen, Texas. Amid this year's U.S. Senate race, pollster Ivan Moore predicted on Saturday that Cruz is going to "lose for sure" against his Democratic opponent, Representative Colin Allred. More Brandon Bell/Getty Images
This comes after Cruz was dealt a blow as The Dallas Morning News, the state's top newspaper by daily circulation, endorsed Allred in a front-page editorial late last month.
"We looked not only at their actions but also listened to their words, and, after doing so, we recommend voters cast their ballots for Allred in the coming election," the newspaper's editorial board wrote.
Allred has also been endorsed by the Houston Chronicle, San Antonio Express-News and Fort Worth Star-Telegram.
The Morning News' editorial heavily criticized Cruz, saying he has "long embraced the politics of division" and on items of crucial importance to the country, he "digs in the most partisan mode possible, making no room for common ground."
Meanwhile, the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are seen as locked in a close battle nationally.
In Texas, a red state, recent polling gave Trump a lead of between 4 and 12 points.
However, Democrats have made major inroads into the Lone Star State over recent presidential election cycles, with Joe Biden losing the state in 2020 by 5.6 percentage points compared to Barack Obama's 15.8-point loss in 2012.
As a result, some Democrats believe the state could be competitive in the White House race, with former Texas Representative Beto O'Rourke describing it as "really the sleeper battleground state."
As of Saturday, according to 538's poll tracker, Trump is ahead of Harris by 7.4 points, with 51.4 percent to her 44 percent.
IcyPyroman1 on November 3rd, 2024 at 14:41 UTC »
As someone from Texas I did my part. Fuck Ted Cruz
AlienInTexas on November 3rd, 2024 at 14:33 UTC »
I wish. A Trump defeat and a Ted Cruz defeat on the same day is my wet dream
Dwayla on November 3rd, 2024 at 14:29 UTC »
Come on Texas, you got this.