The Daily Populous Monday November 4th, 2024 morning edition
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rifain on November 3rd, 2024 at 23:06 UTC »

I hope you are right Ann.

Majestic_Gazelle on November 3rd, 2024 at 23:11 UTC »

That’s a wild take when she had him winning vs Clinton and nobody else did…

rconscious on November 3rd, 2024 at 23:34 UTC »

People have no fucking clue about J. Ann Selzer, The Polling Queen of Iowa. She has received ridicule in the past few elections at the very least. In 2016, she had trump doing much better than people assumed he would. Her poll was accurate. In 2020, same deal and this time including the senate race in IA. Everyone gave her flack both years, but she stuck to her resolve. She knew her methodology is sound and she stood by it. She does not change it for anyone just because it differs from public opinion, perception, preferences, etc. Lots of people had to apologize to her because of how she was right both times but did not think she would be. Now, she is getting flack again, but this time because she has Harris winning in her polls. But also again, she has confidence in her methodology and will stick to the outcome of her poll. She knows what the fuck she is doing. She is considered one of the most accurate pollsters, if not THE most accurate pollster, in America. A+ pollster through and through. Though we don't have this in the bag, her poll makes me optimistic.

EDIT: She also has a history of polling midterm elections accurately. And someone commenting on this comment highlighted how she called the 2008 caucus for Obama when everyone assumed it would be a Clinton win.

EDIT2: One more thing. Her Iowa poll is considered a barometer for the midwest (think WI/MI/PA). Her improving on Biden's margin by 11 POINTS bodes very well for her. So much so that, assuming that she will be accurate again, we may see some big surprises in the form of winning other states beyond the swing states when this election is settled.