Shock Poll Says Kamala Harris Within Striking Distance of Trump in Kansas

Vice President Kamala Harris is trailing former president Donald Trump by only a slim margin in Kansas, according to a poll.

The poll, conducted by Fort Hays State University between September 26 and October 16, found that Trump is only 5 points ahead of Harris in Kansas—a state that has consistently leaned Republican by wide margins in past presidential elections.

The poll surveyed 645 adults and found 48.2% of 517 registered voters said they would vote for Trump and 43.2% said they would vote for Harris.

Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.

Other polls conducted in the state have put Trump ahead by as much as 16 points.

While the poll is likely to be an outlier, it could also suggest that Trump's Republican base in the state, which no Democratic candidate has won since Lyndon Johnson 60 years ago, may be narrowing. He won Kansas by 21 points in 2016 and 15 points in 2020.

Kansas voters view the economy more positively than they did 3 years ago, the poll also shows, which could explain the boost in support for the Democrats. The percentage of people who feel the Kansas economy is weakening dropped from 43.7 percent in 2022 to 37.6 percent this year.

"Kansans' rating of the Kansas economy has become more positive in the past three years," said Jian Sun, co-author of the Docking Institute survey. "The percentage of Kansans rating the Kansas economy as excellent or very good increased from 16.1 percent in 2022 to 21.1 percent in 2024."

However, despite a declining inflation rate, 51.2 percent respondents said inflationary pressures had affected their family "a great deal," while 59 percent were dissatisfied with Joe Biden's work as president.

Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally at Burns Park in Ann Arbor, Michigan, on Monday, October 28, 2024. A poll shows Harris trailing Trump by only a slim margin... Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally at Burns Park in Ann Arbor, Michigan, on Monday, October 28, 2024. A poll shows Harris trailing Trump by only a slim margin in Kansas. More Carlos Osorio/AP

The poll also indicated that Kansas voters' views on abortion may not be in line with Republican lawmakers in the state. Kansans are not voting directly on any abortion-related issues this election, but the issue has featured prominently in some candidates' campaigns at the state and national level.

Earlier this year, Kansas lawmakers passed laws directing additional funds to anti-abortion groups and requiring doctors to report patients' reasons for seeking abortions to state officials. This reporting requirement is currently on hold due to an ongoing legal case.

The survey revealed that just over 50 percent of Kansans either strongly or somewhat opposed these new laws, while just under 25 percent expressed some level of support. Additionally, the share of Kansans believing lawmakers should impose no restrictions on abortion circumstances rose by 4 percent from last year, with around 55 percent agreeing with this stance and about 29 percent disagreeing.

"These [responses] go against the trend that we're seeing in the Kansas Legislature," Alexandra Middlewood, a political science professor at Wichita State University, told Kansas Public Radio.

Abortion has been a key issue for the Democrats in this campaign, particularly among female voters. Throughout the campaign, Harris has positioned herself as a staunch advocate for reproductive rights, leading the Democratic Party's efforts on the issue, and launching a nationwide campaign for reproductive freedoms earlier this year.

In contrast, Trump has struggled to shake off his association with the repeal of Roe v. Wade by the Supreme Court in 2022 after appointing three conservative justices to the court during his term. He has also supported abortion rights being left to the states and has not said whether he would veto a national abortion ban.