The Daily Populous Tuesday October 29th, 2024 day edition
Authored by twz.com and submitted by SyntheticSweetener

Iran is likely still tallying the costs of the Israeli airstrikes launched on Saturday in retaliation for Tehran’s massive October 1 missile barrage on Israel. Among the targets that Israel appears to have gone after are Iran’s prized Russian-made S-300 air defense systems, according to U.S. and Israeli officials. Putting the Iranian S-300s out of action leaves the door open to follow-up strikes by Israel, including larger-scale direct attacks. As we noted on Saturday, this serves as both a contingent opportunity for the Israel Defense Forces and a deterrent against a response from Iran.

Among the critical Iranian military infrastructure destroyed on Saturday were its three surviving S-300 long-range surface-to-air missile systems. This is the assessment of unnamed U.S. and Israeli officials speaking to the Wall Street Journal. Iran’s only other S-300 system was already hit by Israel earlier this year.

Elements of an Iranian S-300 air defense system during the annual military parade marking the anniversary of the outbreak of the 1980-1988 war with Iraq, in Tehran on September 21, 2024. Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP ATTA KENARE

The same officials disclosed that Iran managed to bring down “few if any” of the missiles that Israel launched from around 100 jet fighters, during Saturday’s raid, codenamed Operation Days of Repentance.

The officials’ statements tally with assessments from the U.S. think tank the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), including descriptions of Israel inflicting “serious damage to the Iranian integrated air defense network.”

“The IDF struck three or four S-300 sites, including one at the Imam Khomeini International Airport near Tehran,” the ISW adds.

The think tank states that at least some of the air defense sites targeted were protecting critical energy infrastructure in western and southwestern Iran and identifies sites being hit at the Abadan oil refinery, the Bandar Imam Khomeini energy complex and port, and the Tang-eh Bijar gas field.

NEW: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) inflicted serious damage to the Iranian integrated air defense network during its strikes on Iran on October 25. 🧵(1/7) pic.twitter.com/hhhh9srJ3N — Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) October 28, 2024

“Degrading the air defenses around these sites could leave them more vulnerable to future strikes,” ISW contends.

While the S-300 has been steadily updated since it was first introduced by the Soviet Union in the late 1970s, it is now an aging system and one that has proven vulnerable in Ukraine. Nevertheless, it remains a significant threat, especially if used as part of a layered air defense system, and these surface-to-air missile systems were the most capable of their kind available to Iran.

Tehran was the recipient of one of the more modern iterations of the S-300, namely the S-300PMU-2 Favorit (known to NATO as the SA-20B Gargoyle), which was introduced in 1997 and which has improved anti-ballistic missile capabilities. It should be noted that, over the years the IAF has trained against the specific S-300 threat in several multinational air exercises, making use of S-300PMU-1 systems operated by Greece and S-300s in the U.S., and refining its tactics in the process.

An S-300PMU-1 during a Greek military exercise near Chania on the island of Crete on December 13, 2013. Costas Metaxakis/AFP via Getty Images A Greek S-300PMU-1 during a military exercise near Chania on the island of Crete in 2013. Costas Metaxakis/AFP via Getty Images

Replacement of Iran’s S-300s, at least in the near term, is hardly straightforward. Russia currently needs as much air defense equipment as it can produce, for the war in Ukraine, so the transfer of systems from its own stocks to Tehran seems less realistic. There’s also likely to be a long wait for new-production Russian air defense systems in the same class, like the more capable S-400. One option might be the deployment of one or two Russian batteries, as has happened before in Syria, but this would be more symbolic than anything else, and it is still less likely due to the strain on Russia’s own air defenses.

– Ghadir Radar (West Iran, Ilam Province, middle left)

– HAWK Site, this looks more like failed AD launch https://t.co/Vaf05MdoyD pic.twitter.com/xiu33tuzw3 — Aurora Intel (@AuroraIntel) October 28, 2024

Regardless, the loss of the S-300s leaves Iran far more exposed than it was before the weekend, should Israel decide to launch any follow-up attacks on the country’s military infrastructure, or expand its target list to regime sites or nuclear installations. We also don’t know the state of Iran’s other air defense systems and networking architecture, which could have been attacked non-kinetically, especially using cyber tactics.

There are unconfirmed reports from Israel that some kind of follow-up operation might already have been prepared, with claims that government targets and infrastructure could be next, although Iranian nuclear facilities will apparently be spared for now. Considering how Saturday’s airstrikes included significant softening up of Iranian air defenses, it is almost inevitable that Israel has several follow-up options already planned should Iran respond with another barrage.

Israeli Channel 13, quoting military officials:

We do not rule out that the Air Force will be forced to carry out another military operation in Iran.

Any further attack on Iran will focus on government targets and infrastructure.

We will not strike any Iranian nuclear targets… — Clash Report (@clashreport) October 28, 2024

Reports now indicate that the Israeli strikes on Saturday targeted around 20 military bases and facilities, across Iran, including missile and drone manufacturing sites, as well as the S-300 air defense systems. The attack killed at least four soldiers.

As well as targeting air defense sites, including the S-300 systems, the Israeli attack was calculated to disrupt Iranian production of missiles and drones, something that should have a knock-on effect on Tehran’s proxies, such as Hezbollah and the Houthis, as well as for Russia.

One of the missile production facilities appears to be the Shahroud factory in Semnan province, with evidence of damage there seen below. Although Shahroud is best known for its role in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) space program, it is also assessed to be an important center for the large-scale production of short- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles, too.

For a basis of understanding what was achieved, Sharoud missile complex is ~800 km from the Iraqi border. https://t.co/curCzaOg7C pic.twitter.com/dyc6l3ob2n — Evergreen Intel (@vcdgf555) October 27, 2024

Appears to be an additional building at the Shahroud missile complex that was targeted. Roof area is about 140x 55 feet (43 x 16.8 meters).

36.245342, 55.287728 https://t.co/QWPuRgrJZ8 pic.twitter.com/rjcthAVq0S — Evergreen Intel (@vcdgf555) October 27, 2024

ִ#ברקיינג: צילומי לוויין חושפים כי בתקיפה באיראן הושמד מתקן מרכזי בבסיס ניסויי הטילים הסודי של איראן ליד שרהוד. בצילומי הלוויין הארכיונים ניתן להתרשם כי דרך מתקן הניסוי המרכזי של הבסיס עברו מאות מארזי טילים. pic.twitter.com/vlrkcwwlXU — אינטלי טיימס – Intelli Times (@IntelliTimes) October 27, 2024

TWZ has already looked at the evidence of damage at the Parchin missile production complex, which was revealed through commercially available satellite imagery. In particular, the Israeli airstrikes appear to have targeted parts of the facility that were used for the production of the solid fuel that powers newer Iranian ballistic missiles.

ISW predicts that Iran “will likely need months or possibly a year or more” to acquire the equipment needed to replace these losses at Parchin.

Since the raids, more footage has emerged showing apparent destruction at another Iranian site, namely at Shams Abad, near Arak, which is understood to be home to a major drone production facility.

Footage reveals the aftermath of an Israeli strike on a large UAV manufacturing facility in Shams Abad, near Arak. Iran has prohibited documentation in the area, but a some Iranians managed to leak this video. pic.twitter.com/ZergdsO2T2 — Open Source Intel (@Osint613) October 27, 2024

As we discussed before, the Israeli airstrikes appear to have involved air-launched ballistic missiles (ALBMs), with wreckage of at least one of these being discovered in Iraq. The same kinds of munitions were used in the spring of this year when another S-300 system was again the target.

Synthetic aperture radar imagery showing the aftermath of an earlier Israeli attack on an Iranian S-300 battery, in April 2024:

Umbra synthetic aperture radar imagery acquired 0648Z 19APR2024 showed evidence of damage to the Iranian S-300PMU2 strategic surface-to-air missile battery in Isfahan since 15APR2024. A probable damaged 30N6E target engagement radar was visible in imagery still on the radar… pic.twitter.com/eqMFTanPOH — Chris Biggers (@CSBiggers) April 19, 2024

Using these weapons, which include Rocks and Air LORA, the Israeli Air Force can strike deep into Iran, with considerable standoff distances ensuring that its crewed aircraft are not put in extreme danger. It still remains unclear if any IAF aircraft flew into Iranian airspace, but some reports claim they did. Even using only standoff munitions, this may have been necessary in order to reach targets in eastern Iran, although they may not have had to penetrate far. At the same time, these weapons provide a combination of high accuracy and significant destructive power and are a major challenge to intercept.

There are still differing accounts as to the number of munitions launched by the IAF. The deputy commanding officer of the Iranian Army’s Southwestern Command, Mohammad Mokhtari-far, today claimed that more than 600 missiles were launched by Israeli aircraft. Bearing in mind multiple reports suggesting around 100 Israeli aircraft were involved, this figure seems vastly inflated. On the other hand, it remains very likely that Israel also employed other means to degrade Iranian air defenses, including potential cyber-attacks.

The Deputy-Commanding Officer of the Iranian Army’s Southwestern Command, Mohammad Mokhtari-far claimed on Monday that over 600 Missiles were launched by Israeli Aircraft against Sites in Iran, during Friday Night’s Attack. — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 28, 2024

In the meantime, Iraq has lodged a complaint to the United Nations over Israel’s use of its airspace to attack Iran.

In a protest letter sent to U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and the U.N. Security Council, Iraq condemned “the Zionist entity’s blatant violation of Iraq’s airspace and sovereignty by using Iraqi airspace to carry out an attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran on 26 October.”

We now also know a little more about some of the IAF aircraft and units that were involved in the strikes.

Pilots from various units are quoted in a Jerusalem Post article, which references 119 Squadron and 201 Squadron, which both fly the F-16I Sufa, a long-range strike specialist.

“It was an honor to fly through the dark desert, knowing every moment in the air was a step toward a new dawn for Israel,” said Lt. Col. “Y.,” commander of 119 Squadron.

"It was an honor to fly through the dark desert, knowing every moment in the air was a step toward a new dawn for Israel," Lt. Col. Y., said of the mission that marked Israel’s largest strike on Iran in decades.https://t.co/GbOeKfgw6F — The Jerusalem Post (@Jerusalem_Post) October 27, 2024

From the Iranian side, threats of retaliation continue.

Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, the chief of Iran’s IRGC, warned Israel it would face “bitter consequences” after its attack on Saturday, according to local media reports.

Salami was quoted today as having said that Israel had “failed to achieve its ominous goals,” describing the airstrikes as symbolic of “miscalculation and helplessness.”

At the same time, however, there is debate in Iran about what kind of response Tehran should formulate.

Iran now has to make a call as to whether to not respond at all, or at least with a direct attack like that on October 1, or whether to prepare some kind of retaliation that is seen as proportionate to the Israeli airstrikes — which were more limited than many expected.

🚨 Breaking: Iran 🇮🇷 announced that it will respond to Israel's 🇮🇱 attack. Tonight they put up Hebrew posters in Tehran saying “another storm is coming” 👇

Looks like their nuclear and oil facilities are next to be destroyed… pic.twitter.com/0YH7I6hYoH — Dr. Eli David (@DrEliDavid) October 26, 2024

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran was not looking for a war but would respond “appropriately” to Israel’s strikes, suggesting a degree of caution. “We do not seek war, but we will defend the rights of our nation and country,” Pezeshkian told a cabinet meeting yesterday. “We will give an appropriate response to the aggression of the Zionist regime,” he added.

Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said that Tehran will “use all available tools” to respond to Israel’s attack, although provided no more details on how it would “deliver a definite and effective response to the Zionist regime.”

Finally, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said yesterday that the attack should not be “exaggerated or downplayed” but also did not vow immediate retaliation. Meanwhile, there are reports that Khamenei is gravely ill, and the search for a potential successor could lead to a power struggle with possible repercussions on the conflict with Israel.

Israeli Chief of General Staff, Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi stated during a Situational Assessment yesterday at the Military Headquarters located at the Kirya in Tel Aviv, “We have used only a Fraction of our Capabilities; we can do much more. We struck Strategic Systems in… pic.twitter.com/Ytvx8UIo0I — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 27, 2024

As we discussed over the weekend, the Israeli raid was carefully tailored to weaken Iran’s offensive and defensive capabilities while at the same time minimizing risk to Israel and providing deterrence. To reinforce the deterrence effect, Israeli officials now appear to be ramping up their threats of potential follow-up strikes.

Time will tell if that Israeli calculation pays off.

stilusmobilus on October 28th, 2024 at 22:39 UTC »

So the F35 works is the take from this.

CannonAFB_unofficial on October 28th, 2024 at 21:37 UTC »

Trained against SA-20s in the US. This is what tickles my balls.

The SA-20 is no joke, but also not a biggie against a F-35 and proper planning, both of which the IAF has access to.

Blueskyways on October 28th, 2024 at 21:20 UTC »

The market for Russian air defense systems has to be practically nonexistent at this point.