Vice President Kamala Harris edged ahead of former President Donald Trump for the first time in the conservative-leaning Rasmussen Reports daily presidential poll released Friday.
With 11 days until Election Day, the race between Trump and Harris remains extremely tight, with the outcome largely depending on key battleground states.
A new national Rasmussen Reports survey of 2,745 likely voters finds Harris leading Trump by 1 percentage point (48 to 47 percent), which is within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Meanwhile, 2 percent of respondents said they would vote for another candidate and 3 percent are undecided. The poll was conducted between October 21 and 24.
"This is the first time Harris has led since Rasmussen Reports began its daily tracking poll on October 15," the pollster said in an announcement on its website Friday. Rasmussen Reports has been collecting polling data and publishing daily results reflecting four-night average of nightly samples, according to its website.
Unlike some other recent polls, the Rasmussen Reports survey found Harris and Trump to have essentially no gender edge, with Harris leading by 2 percentage points among women and Trump leading by 1 percentage point among men.
Newsweek has reached out to Harris and Trump's campaigns for comment via email on Friday evening.
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks on July 17 in Kalamazoo, Michigan. Former President Donald Trump is seen on September 17 in Flint, Michigan. Harris edged ahead of Trump for the first time in the conservative-leaning... Vice President Kamala Harris speaks on July 17 in Kalamazoo, Michigan. Former President Donald Trump is seen on September 17 in Flint, Michigan. Harris edged ahead of Trump for the first time in the conservative-leaning Rasmussen Reports daily presidential poll released Friday. More Chris duMond/Scott Olson/Getty Images
The last daily Rasmussen Reports poll showed Trump ahead of Harris by 2 percentage points, 49 to 47 percent, while the one prior on Wednesday, showed Trump with at 49 percent and Harris at 46 percent. Both of those polls had a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point.
Earlier this year, ABC News' aggregate polling site FiveThirtyEight removed Rasmussen Reports from its polling averages and forecasts due to questions about the pollster's methodology and ethics. In an email from ABC News warning about dropping the pollster, which Rasmussen posted online, the network stated: "Rasmussen must explain the nature of its relationship with several right-leaning blogs and online media outlets, which have given us reason to doubt the ethical operation of the polling firm."
The latest poll's results align with aggregate national polls, showing Harris with a slim or no lead in the popular vote. However, it reflects a shift in momentum from other polls, with recent surveys indicating growing support for Trump and a decline for the vice president.
A New York Times/Siena College poll released on Friday shows Trump and Harris deadlocked at 48 percent support each among registered U.S. voters. The poll was conducted among 2,516 voters over the phone between October 20 and October 23 and has a margin of error of 2.2 percent.
The previous edition of the poll, conducted among 2,516 registered voters between September 29 and October 6 with a 2.2 percent margin of error, showed Harris with a 2 percentage point lead over the former president. Harris was backed by 48 percent of voters while Trump was backed by 46 percent. The latest poll shows the gap tightening.
The Times noted on Friday that the new poll result was "not encouraging for Ms. Harris" since Democrats have managed to win the national popular vote in all presidential elections since 2008, despite former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton losing to Trump in the Electoral College in 2016.
Nationwide and aggregate polls gauge voter sentiment, but individual states and their Electoral College votes ultimately decide the presidential election. To win the presidency, a candidate must secure 270 electoral votes, which doesn't always align with the national popular vote.
kaizen-rai on October 26th, 2024 at 23:52 UTC »
I don't care. I don't care if every poll in every state says Kamala is leading trump 99% to 1%.
I fucked up in 2016, I admit it. I was stationed in Korea, and working 10-14 hour days, 6-7 days a week. In the leadup to the election, I saw how erratic and crazy Trump was. Clinton was leading the polls. Candidates have lost elections for FAR FAR less than what Trump has said and done. I thought there was no way Trump would win. It would be a historic landslide victory because no one is crazy or stupid enough to vote for that maniac. So I didn't request a absentee ballot because I figured my vote wouldn't matter.
He won. Not by a lot, he squeaked by just enough votes in battleground states to win the electoral college. Including my state... a battleground state.
I am never trusting "polls" or trusting in human intelligence again. I will always vote until the day I die.
Who cares what the polls are saying. They're wrong and manipulated most of the time.
GO VOTE GO VOTE GO VOTE GO VOTE
PandaMuffin1 on October 26th, 2024 at 20:50 UTC »
It is still a garbage poll.
YgramulTheMany on October 26th, 2024 at 20:07 UTC »
We’ve all been saying for months that the polls will become increasingly erratic and useless as we get close to Election Day.
It’s happening. Just cast your vote and drive every neighbor and relative you can to the polls.