3 tell-tale signs that Harris will beat Trump: Real polls, fake polls, enthusiasm

Donald Trump, his MAGA followers and Fox News are clinging to the hope that a slew of Republican-sponsored polls — which are allegedly intentionally slanted — will help produce a victory on Nov. 5 by energizing GOP voters who are fading in the enthusiasm battles with the Kamala Harris coalition.

It’s a tough task as the former president talks about genitalia, veers off message and continues to threaten “the enemy within” — his political opponents, the media and others — with prison. Republican leaders have been pleading with Trump to ditch the MAGA authoritarian messaging, but he refuses.

Meanwhile, independent polling indicates that Harris, the Vice President, is running through the finish line and, if the Democrats can get out their vote, is likely to be elected president.

Polling has consistently shown that Harris is building a team of Democrats, Independents and disaffected Republicans (from Bernie Sanders to Liz Cheney); the more voters learn about her, the more they like her; and she has dissolved Trump’s presumed advantage: the economy.

Harris has been ahead in nearly every independent poll released in the past two months, and there are signs that as election day draws near, she will claim most of the undecided and/or soft votes and win.

Here’s why Harris is likely to win:

In accredited polls, voters simply find that Harris is a better candidate. In an AP poll released on Monday, Harris is plus-5 in favorability (51-46%), while Trump is minus-18 (40-58%).

And the favorability carries through the ticket, according to the AP poll: Democratic VP nominee Tim Walz has a plus-4 favorability rating (41-37%), while Trump running mate JD Vance is 15 points underwater (33-48%).

With voting underway or about to begin in dozens of states, campaign analysts believe this is a key factor, and Harris’ strong favorability is convincing voters who are now deciding.

According to an Emerson College poll, “Voters who made their decision on who to support over a month ago break for Trump, 52% to 48%, while voters who made up their mind in the last month or week break for Harris, 60% to 36%. The three percent of voters who said they could still change their mind currently favor Harris, 48% to 43%.”

Harris spent Monday campaigning with Cheney, a former member of the GOP’s House leadership, in three key battleground states.

Cheney, trying to persuade Republican voters to break from Trump, said they could find Harris a better choice — and choose her privately: “I know many Republicans who will vote for Vice President Harris but not be public. Remember, you can vote your conscience and not ever have to say a word to anybody. There will be millions of Republicans who do that on Nov. 5.”

According to The Associated Press, which is another accredited pollster: “Trump has lost what had been an advantage on the economy, which many voters say is the most important issue this election season.”

When voters were asked by the AP whom they trust on key issues, Harris polled +12 on middle class taxes, +5 on housing costs, +2 on jobs and employment. She also polled +24 on abortion, a key issue that the Democrats have tied to economic freedom for women and families.

Trump led by two points on the cost of groceries and gas, and five points on tariffs.

Two new independent national polls released Tuesday reveal Harris’ lead persists: Morning Consult (with no change vs. its last poll) shows Harris up 50-46%, while a Reuters/Ipsos (also no change vs. its last poll), shows Harris ahead, 48-45%.

Still, Many MAGA enthusiasts point to questionable polls and Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, whose bettors were giving Trump a 60% chance of winning this week, while Harris’s chances were 40%.

But the Wall Street Journal reported the Polymarket surge “might be a mirage.” The candidates were in a dead heat at the start of October.

According to the Wall Street Journal:

Trump’s gains on Polymarket have cheered his supporters, and they have been followed by the odds shifting in Trump’s favor in other betting markets. Elon Musk flagged Trump’s growing lead on Polymarket to his 200 million X followers on Oct. 6, praising the concept of betting markets. “More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line,” Musk posted.

But the surge might be a mirage manufactured by a group of four Polymarket accounts that have collectively pumped about $30 million of crypto into bets that Trump will win.

In addition, the Democrats have pointed to a flood of fake GOP polls that are implying that Trump has momentum in the final month. But Democratic analyst Simon Rosenberg, who predicted the arrival of these polls weeks before they appeared, is calling them out — along with sites like FiveThirtyEight, which acknowledges the polls are bad data, but includes them anyway.

“Since late August more than 70 right-aligned polls have been dropped into the polling averages,” Rosenberg writes. “The two states that have been worked the hardest are North Carolina and Pennsylvania. In October of the 27 Presidential polls released in Pennsylvania, 16 are from right-aligned pollsters, a majority. Since Aug. 31, of the 41 Presidential polls released in North Carolina, 21, a majority have home come from right aligned pollsters. At least 31 right-aligned pollsters and sponsoring organizations have released polls in the last 7 weeks.”

North Carolina might be a tell-tale: “Trump and his campaign spending this much time in North Carolina shows they know they are behind in electoral college,” former GOP campaign strategist Matthew Dowd tweeted. “If they are trying this hard to win NC, it means they know they are in trouble.”

Rosenberg added: “This 2024 red wave op is much larger and involves many more actors and polls than the red wave campaign in 2022. It also involves new players — Polymarket, Elon — and feels far more desperate, frenetic, unhinged. Trumpian.”

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