In many ways, the polling debate of 2024 comes down to this dilemma. On the one hand, pollsters undercounted Donald Trump’s vote in 2016 and 2020. On the other, in 2022, some of the averages, fed by GOP data, inspired certain observers to discern the infamous red wave that never materialized. So the question now is: Will 2024 be more like 2016 and 2020, presidential elections in which there was a hidden Trump vote, or will it be more like 2022, a midterm campaign but the first post-Dobbs election, when at least some observers missed the Democratic vote that turned out in no small part in response to the Supreme Court taking away the right to an abortion?
The 2022 cycle also arguably saw a new phenomenon really come to the fore: the rise of openly right-leaning pollsters that consistently showed better results for Republican candidates. Now these questions have once again arisen: Should these pollsters be included in aggregators’ averages or not? And what should you think of the case for their inclusion made by the aggregators, which is that they weight polls in a way that reflects their comparative credibility?
“It’s ridiculous that Democrats are being asked to accept the integrity of polling averages when a plurality or a majority of the polls are coming from right-aligned organizations,” Rosenberg, the author of the Hopium Chronicles on Substack, tells us. The point, he adds, is to “get the entire mainstream analytical community saying the election is slipping away from Harris.”
GarbageCleric on October 23rd, 2024 at 12:21 UTC »
I really fucking hope there are systemic issues with the polls. This being a tight race is fucking absurd.
Trump is obviously is a serious state of cognitive decline. If Biden were doing the shit he's doing now, the media would never shut up about it.
Both his former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs and his Chief of Staff have said he's fascist.
The majority of his former cabinet including his vice president won't endorse him.
He absolutely botched the COVID response while in office and consistently told lies about the state of the pandemic.
He says he wants the military to deal with his political enemies.
He took classified documents and refused to return them when notified for months and months until they had to raid his home.
He met with Russian leaders by himself, and soon after a bunch of our foreign assets started getting killed.
He has never accepted the results of the 2020 election, and he encouraged his supporters to violently prevent congress from certifying the results.
He withheld military aid from Ukraine to pressure them to investigate Hunter Biden.
He fired his FBI director for looking into his campaign's ties to Russia.
He has said more documented lies than any politician in American history.
How is this even fucking close?
forceblast on October 23rd, 2024 at 12:11 UTC »
Vote like those polls are real. It needs to be a landslide for Kamala.
gnarby_thrash on October 23rd, 2024 at 11:28 UTC »
It’s obvious to anyone with critical thinking skills that maga is flooding polling averages so that when Trump loses in a free and fair election maga can mobilize the cult by saying that it has to have been rigged because the valid election results don’t match up with the polling.