The Daily Populous Thursday October 10th, 2024 night edition
Authored by iranintl.com and submitted by Alarmed_Mistake_9999

Tehran warned Persian Gulf Arab states it would be "unacceptable" to allow use of their airspace or bases against Iran, threatening a response if they do, Reuters reported a senior Iranian official saying Wednesday.

The comments come amid growing concern over possible Israeli retaliation for last week's Iranian missile attack, as Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi headed to Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf states for talks on Wednesday.

They followed discussions between Iran and Arab capitals last week on the sidelines of an Asia conference in Qatar, when Persian Gulf states sought to reassure Iran of their neutrality in any conflict between Tehran and Israel.

"Iran made it clear that any action by a Persian Gulf country against Tehran, whether through the use of airspace or military bases, will be regarded by Tehran as an action taken by the entire group, and Tehran will respond accordingly," the senior Iranian official told Reuters.

"The message emphasized the need for regional unity against Israel and the importance of securing stability," he said.

"It also made clear that any assistance to Israel, such as allowing the use of a regional country’s airspace for actions against Iran, is unacceptable."

The role of Persian Gulf Arab states will become more significant if an Israeli attack leads to US military involvement, as Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates all host US military facilities or troops.

US Navy vessels in the Persian Gulf Hormuz Strait. File photo

Meanwhile Israel’s Channel 12 reported on Tuesday that the United States and Arab states have launched covert talks with Iran for a comprehensive ceasefire aimed at calming all war fronts at once.

The report said Israel isn’t currently involved in the initiative but added that senior Israeli officials have been informed about it.

The network noted that it isn’t clear how the efforts would affect Gaza, which is more complex than the rest of the fronts due to Israel’s desire to continue fighting even after a potential hostage deal and Hamas’s demand for an Israeli withdrawal in any deal.

One of the senior Israeli officials was quoted by Channel 12 as saying: “We are currently in a position of power, a ceasefire will be on our terms, including a [Hezbollah] withdrawal beyond the Litani [River] and the dismantling of all military Hezbollah sites in areas near the border.”

US President Joe Biden is expected to hold a telephone call on Wednesday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that will include discussion of any plans to strike Iran, according to a person familiar with the matter who spoke with Reuters.

The official said Iran did not discuss the issue of Persian Gulf Arab oil producers raising output if Iranian production was disrupted during any escalation.

The likelihood of Israel targeting Iran’s oil sector has been widely discussed since Jerusalem made its intention of retaliation clear. However, Israel can target Iran’s export capacity or the domestic energy sector by targeting refineries.

Biden has said he would think about alternatives to striking Iranian oil fields if he were in Israel's shoes. Any such attack would drive up global oil prices just weeks before the US presidential election that can hurt Vice President Kamala Harris’s chances.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, which is de-facto led by Saudi Arabia, has enough spare oil capacity to make up any loss of Iranian supply if an Israeli retaliation knocks out some of the country's facilities.

Much of OPEC's spare capacity is in the Persian Gulf region. Iran has not threatened to attack the oil facilities of its Arab neighbors but has previously warned that if "Israel supporters" intervene directly their interests in the region would be targeted.

Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia has had a political rapprochement with Tehran since 2023, which has helped ease regional tensions, but relations remain difficult.

Saudi Arabia has been wary of an Iranian strike on its oil facilities since a 2019 attack on its key refinery at Abqaiq briefly shut down more than 5% of global oil supply. Iran denied involvement.

A Western diplomat in the Persian Gulf told Reuters that during Thursday's meeting in Doha, Iran made clear that Tehran had called for regional unity in the face of an Israeli attack and that it considered neutrality of Gulf states a bare minimum.

The diplomat said Iran had made clear that Tehran would keep a close eye on how each Persian Gulf country responded in the case of an Israeli attack, and also how US bases housed in their countries were used.

clydewoodforest on October 9th, 2024 at 16:48 UTC »

The Gulf Arab states with the enormous US airbases in them? Those states?

Iran sounding increasingly desperate.

ex0e on October 9th, 2024 at 16:43 UTC »

So Iran can use other countries airspace to attack Israel with missiles, but its not allowed to be attacked back? Perhaps they are worried about shooting down another civilian airline while panicking over a nonexistent Israeli strike.

I doubt this warning is more than performative posturing because if they strike gulf states they are going to have a much bigger problem than Israel. It is beyond counterproductive for them to have even more countries congregate around Saudi Arabia when they are trying to be the hegemon of the region

Alarmed_Mistake_9999 on October 9th, 2024 at 16:10 UTC »

Submission Statement: Last Week, the Gulf Arab States assured Iran that they would be neutral if Israel were to strike Iranian strategic sites. The Iranian delegation responded with a threat that any use of Saudi or GCC airspace or airbases in any military operations against Iran would be seen as a "hostile act" and would cross Tehran's red line.

In summary, the Gulf States can't afford to have Iranian drones and bombs hitting their territory. They must maintain their reputations for wealth and stability at all costs. Without ironclad American security guarantees, the Gulf Arabs don't feel confident enough to take on the role of a Middle Eastern Poland against a major American adversary.