The Daily Populous Friday October 4th, 2024 day edition
Authored by newsweek.com and submitted by JulietAlfaTango

Kamala Harris is getting closer to Donald Trump's lead in his home state of Florida, according to latest polls.

In two of the three most recent polls in the state, Trump's leads over Harris have fallen to within the margin of error, indicating that, while still an underdog, the vice president might have a fighting chance of winning the Sunshine State.

Trump carried Florida by 1.2 percent in the 2016 election and again in 2020 by 3.3 percent. He has been an official resident of the state since 2019, residing at his Palm Beach resort of Mar-a-Lago.

While Trump is still leading in all Florida polls and is favored in betting markets, the race is tightening.

Donald Trump, left, in Valdosta, Georgia, September 30, 2024, and Kamala Harris, right, in Washington, D.C., September 30, 2024. Harris is tightening Trump's lead in his home state of Florida, according to latest polls. Donald Trump, left, in Valdosta, Georgia, September 30, 2024, and Kamala Harris, right, in Washington, D.C., September 30, 2024. Harris is tightening Trump's lead in his home state of Florida, according to latest polls. Evan Vucci and Jacquelyn Martin/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight has Trump 4.1 points ahead in Florida on average, he was 4.5 ahead at the beginning of September. Another polling aggregator, Nate Silver, has Trump 3.5 points ahead on average. Silver had Trump 4.7 points ahead at the beginning of September.

Florida, the third-most populous state in the U.S. carries 30 Electoral College votes, without it Trump would almost certainly have no path to victory in November.

Polls also show a tight race for the state's Senate seat, where Democratic candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a former Florida Representative, is running to unseat Republican Rick Scott, who is running for a second term. Flipping Florida would be a huge help to Democrats in their attempts to retain a razor-thin Senate majority, something they are currently looking unlikely to do.

Table of recent Presidential and Senate Polls in Florida (rounded up):

Date Pollster Survey Size Lead Margin of error Sept. 22-25 Victory Insights 600 Likely Voters Presidency: Harris 44.9% Trump 46.9% Trump +2 +/- 4.4% Senate: Mucarsel-Powell 43.8% Scott 44.6% Scott +0.8 +/-4.4% Sept. 25-26 Public Policy Polling (sponsored by D-leaning PAC) 808 Registered Voters Presidency: Harris: 46% Trump 50% Trump +4 +/-3.5% Senate: Mucarsel-Powell 43% Scott 44% Scott +1 +/-3.5 Sept. 20-23 The Bullfinch Group 600 Registered Voters Presidency: Harris 47% Trump 48% Trump +1 +/-4% Senate: Mucarsel-Powell 44% Scott 46% Scott +2 +/-4%

Rachel Reisnet, the Republican Party's director of Regional Reisner told Newsweek she was confident Flordia would stay red.

"Florida is Trump country. Thousands of Republicans are fleeing blue states, frustrated by the failures of Harris and the Democrats. In November, Florida voters will send a clear and resounding message: President Donald J. Trump is the only leader with a proven track record of making our nation prosperous and affordable," Reisner said. "The movement to Make America Great Again is alive and growing, and it starts here in Florida."

Marc Chaaban, Mucarsel-Powell's deputy communications director, told Newsweek that the Democratic Senate contender has a strong chance of winning.

"While Rick Scott's been busy trafficking in conspiracy theories and voting against access to IVF, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell has been working to reach every voter where they are," Chaaban said. "After 14 years of Rick Scott's extremism and failures, it's no surprise Floridians are rallying around Debbie's campaign to restore reproductive freedom, protect seniors' benefits, and make life more affordable for every family. The incredible energy behind Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is only growing, and in November, Floridians will come together to retire Rick Scott."

One of the latest polls conducted by Victory Insights, surveyed 600 likely voters between September 22 and September 25. Of the respondents, 46.9 percent supported Trump, 44.9 percent supported Harris, giving Trump a 2 point lead.

In the Senate question of the same poll, 44.6 percent voted for Scott, and 43.8 percent voted for Mucarsel-Powell, giving Scott a 0.8 lead.

Both leads fall within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Another poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling for Democrat-affiliated political action committee Clean and Prosperous America between September 25 and September 26, surveyed 808 registered voters. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.5 percent.

Of the respondents, 50 percent said they would vote for Trump and 46 percent said they would vote for Harris. In the Senate race, 44 percent said they would vote for Scott while 43 percent said they would vote for Mucarsel-Powell, within the margin of error.

A third poll, conducted by The Bullfinch Group for The Independent Centre between September 20 and 23, surveyed 600 likely voters in Florida. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Of the respondents, 48 percent supported Trump, while 47 percent supported Harris, a Trump lead within the margin of error. In the Senate Race, 46 percent supported Scott and 44 percent supported Mucarsel-Powell, a Scott lead within the margin of error.

Update 10/02/24, 1:10 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Rachel Reisnet and Marc Chaaban.

QanonQuinoa on October 4th, 2024 at 03:30 UTC »

Florida counts ballots very quickly. If she can pull off an early win here I’ll be able to get a full nights rest every day of election week for once.

Gemstyle96 on October 4th, 2024 at 03:07 UTC »

How do the polls have her doing okay in Florida but then have the swing states being close? Why is North Carolina close when the democrat governor is easily winning? There are so many bizarre and inconsistent polls this year.

V-r1taS on October 4th, 2024 at 02:59 UTC »

There seems to be a signal in national, Senate, and non-battleground state polls and fundraising that is being obscured at the moment. Ted Cruz is also pivoting to the middle. Trump rally attendance is declining.

And this is all before the events of the last few days.

The work isn’t done, but there are reasons for optimism. Keep the pressure on.