Tim Walz Gets Bigger Polling Boost Than JD Vance After VP Debate

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz saw a significant bump in polling after Tuesday night's vice presidential debate in New York, surpassing Ohio Senator JD Vance in postdebate momentum.

The showdown saw the two candidates largely focus on differences, with Vance repeatedly hitting Vice President Kamala Harris on border security, while Walz lambasted former President Donald Trump on abortion rights. Newsweek has contacted the Vance and Walz campaigns for comment via email.

A flash poll conducted by CNN and SSRS after the debate among 574 registered voters who watched the showdown found that 51 percent of respondents said that Vance came out on top, compared to 49 percent who said the same of Walz. The margin of error was +/- 5.3 points.

A CBS News flash poll performed in conjunction with YouGov also showed Vance winning by a slim margin, with 42 percent of 1,630 respondents saying they thought the Ohio senator won the debate, to Walz's 41 percent. The margin of error was +/- 2.7 points. Seventeen percent of respondents said the debate was a draw.

In a Politico snap poll of the debate, while voters were split 50-50 on who won, Walz was seen to have won with independents by 58-42. He was also preferred as vice president by 44 percent of independents, with 36 percent choosing Vance.

Republican vice presidential nominee Senator JD Vance, R-Ohio, left, and Democratic vice presidential nominee Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, shake hands as they arrive for a CBS News vice presidential debate, Tuesday, October 1, 2024, in... Republican vice presidential nominee Senator JD Vance, R-Ohio, left, and Democratic vice presidential nominee Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, shake hands as they arrive for a CBS News vice presidential debate, Tuesday, October 1, 2024, in New York. Walz had a bigger boost to his favorability ratings than Vance after the debate. More Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP

However, despite Vance's win, the CNN/SSRS poll also shows that Walz saw a bigger rise in his favorability ratings after the debate than Vance.

According to the poll, the Minnesota governor saw a 23-point boost in his favorability ratings, going up from +14 to +37. Meanwhile, Vance saw a 19-point boost in his favorability ratings, going up from -22 to -3.

The poll also found that debate viewers believe Walz is more in touch with their needs and concerns than Vance, with 48 percent expressing this view compared to 35 percent for Vance. Additionally, 48 percent of respondents felt Walz better aligns with their vision for America, while 39 percent said the same about Vance. Another 8 percent felt both candidates shared their vision, and 5 percent said neither did.

Meanwhile, Walz lost out to Vance when it came to whom viewers thought defended their running mate better, with 37 percent choosing the Ohio senator, compared to 33 percent who chose the Minnesota governor. Twenty-seven percent said that each candidate did an equally good job, while 3 percent said that neither did.

Just 1 percent of voters who tuned into the debate said it had changed their minds about whom to vote for.

JD Vance and Tim Walz in last night's VP debate. A flash poll after the debate by CNN said Vance won by a slim majority, but Walz scored a number of big polling victories off... JD Vance and Tim Walz in last night's VP debate. A flash poll after the debate by CNN said Vance won by a slim majority, but Walz scored a number of big polling victories off the back of the debate. More AP

Throughout the election, Vance has had a lower net favorability rating than Walz, according to Morning Consult's trend tracker, although the margins between them have fluctuated over the months.

A recent Morning Consult survey, carried out among 2,121 likely U.S. voters between September 27 and 29, found that Walz had a 45 percent popularity rating over Vance's 39 percent.

Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight's favorability tracker shows that Walz has a net favorability score of +4.2 points, with 40.2 percent of voters viewing him favorably, compared to 36 percent who view him unfavorably.

In contrast, Vance has a net favorability score of -10.7 points, with 45.5 percent of voters viewing him unfavorably, compared to 34.8 percent who view him favorably.

Since he became the candidate on the Republican ticket, Vance's unfavorability rating has declined from -3.3 points in mid-July to -10.7 points. Walz's favorables have also declined, from +9.1 points at the beginning of August to +4.2 points. However, the Minnesota governor has retained a positive net favorability score.

Vance has previously said he does not believe in public opinion polls. Last month, when he was speaking at a campaign event in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, he said: "I don't believe the polls when they say that we're up; I don't believe the polls when they say tied; I don't believe the polls that say that we're down. Our job is to win the trust of the American voters, not public opinion polls."