The Daily Populous Sunday September 29th, 2024 day edition
Authored by bloomberg.com and submitted by DrVeigonX

Thank you for joining us today. Here’re are the key takeaways:

Israel killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah , in a massive blow to the militant group and a win for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

, in a massive blow to the militant group and a win for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The death, confirmed by Hezbollah, was the result of an Israeli strike on southern Beirut on Friday. Nasrallah had led the Iran-backed group since the early 1990s and was a key player in Tehran’s network of proxy forces in the Middle East.

led the Iran-backed group since the early 1990s and was a in the Middle East. A key question is how Hezbollah and its sponsor Iran will respond, although reactions for now have been fairly measured. In a statement earlier Saturday, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Lebanon will retaliate, but stopped short of vowing a direct response from Tehran.

although reactions for now have been fairly measured. In a statement earlier Saturday, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Lebanon will retaliate, but stopped short of vowing a direct response from Tehran. Hashem Safieddine is widely viewed as Nasrallah’s most likely successor . He is a cousin of the former leader and has been head of Hezbollah’s executive council since 1992. He was named a Specially Designated Global Terrorist by the US in 2017.

. He is a cousin of the former leader and has been head of Hezbollah’s executive council since 1992. He was named a Specially Designated Global Terrorist by the US in 2017. Israel has beenescalating its attacks on Hezbollah in recent weeks, after it announced it would turn its attention to the north and redirect some military resources from the ongoing war against Hamas in Gaza. Friday’s air strike was the heaviest on the Lebanese capital in almost two decades.

HungryHungryHippoes9 on September 28th, 2024 at 13:12 UTC »

Insane how fast the entire trajectory of this conflict has shifted. Just a month back most news about the region was about how difficult the conflict with lebanon would be for Israel, how well armed Hezbollah was, and now in just a week, a fair chunk of their rocket and artillery force has been destroyed, and most of Hezbollah's leadership has been injured or killed in insanely accurate targeted strikes, along with their top man. I kinda understand why Israel's enemies are so paranoid.

PigsMud on September 28th, 2024 at 12:43 UTC »

Is hezbollah likely to release their rocket stockpile and overwhelm the iron dome or are they too weak and broken to do anything currently ?

If so, it’s crazy how big of a paper tiger they were, I always expected a war with them to be brutal and tough but looks like they went from 100 to 10% in a week !

DrVeigonX on September 28th, 2024 at 12:29 UTC »

This is a big deal.

It isn't simply a case of someone else replacing him, Nasrallah wasn't just a military commander, but a savvy politician and charismatic strongman that was the face of Hezbollah. Hezbollah will live to fight another day, but this is a massive hit to their political power in Lebanon. And if Israel and the west are smart enough, they could exploit that to pull Lebanon out of the Iranian sphere.

The events of the past 2 weeks present a unique opportunity, having shattered the reputation of Hezbollah as the only Arab force capable of standing up to Israel. Without Hezbollah seeming like a capable player, support for war in Lebanon has seemingly dropped direly.

Israel is posed to engage in a ground invasion of Southern Lebanon to finish the job, but this presents a difficult gambit, as while they might be able to exploit this momentum to entirely overwhelm Hezbollah militarily, a ground war might end up becoming a slugfest, giving Hezbollah a chance to ressurge.

While Israel seems to lean towards that direction, this momentum could otherwise be exploited by other western leaders politically, by presenting a similar gambit for the Lebanese opposition. Unite against Hezbollah, take back political power, and get a ceasefire. Their reputation could rise from being able to prevent a devestating war, and some uneasy return to 1701 could be achieved, depending on how much Hezbollah is isolated both militarily and politicaly.

I've seen some people suggest Lebanon even joining the Abraham Accords, but I don't think that likely, nor do I think that's necessary. I would like to believe that Israel could be satisfied even if the Lebanese Army takes control of the south rather than the UN, and the two sign a permanent ceasefire. I doubt the Lebanese are ready for peace with Israel now, as they still have many rightful grievances against the Israelis from decades of conflict.

Yet either way, the result would be the same- the removal of one of Iran's main proxies from the axis. I doubt Hezbollah could be entirely eliminated, but if they are isolated, that significantly isolates Hamas too, perhaps raising the chance of a ceasefire in Gaza- allowing for the finalization a of the Abraham Accords with a normalization of tied with Saudi Arabia.

We've seen the stick, it's time for the carrot. There's a rare opportunity here for a diplomatic solution, but getting it through would be like threading a thin line. Any wrong move and Hezbollah may come back, or worse the entire region could collapse into regional war.