The Daily Populous Monday September 23rd, 2024 morning edition
Authored by forbes.com and submitted by eaglemaxie

DONETSK OBLAST, UKRAINE - OCTOBER 17: Ukrainian soldiers fire 155mm round with 2S22 Bohdana ... [+] self-propelled howitzer on October 17, 2023 in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine. (Photo by Roman Chop/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images) Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images

Although modern technology, including drones and electronic warfare, has shaped the Russia-Ukraine war, the outcome will likely depend on which side can sustain its artillery usage. Both countries rely heavily on Soviet doctrine that emphasizes artillery, with Russia firing around 10,000 rounds daily and Ukraine about 2,000. Initially, Ukraine relied on its Soviet-era stockpiles of 152mm artillery and ammunition, supplemented by NATO-provided 155mm systems and shells. Moving forward, Ukraine is in an increasingly stronger position, now having the capability to produce both 155mm howitzers and the corresponding artillery shells.

Since the start of the war, Ukraine has invested in developing its own domestic capacity to produce 155mm artillery shells. On September 15, Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Oleksandr Kamyshin announced that Ukraine has started serial production of 155mm rounds, although exact details of the facility were not disclosed. While the facility is currently only producing limited amounts of ammunition, its capacity is expected to triple by the end of the year. Ukraine also announced earlier this year that they have an agreement with the German company Rheinmetall to develop facilities for producing 155mm ammunition. Once complete, these facilities are expected to produce enough rounds to sustain Ukraine’s current expenditure of 155mm ammunition.

DONETSK OBLAST, UKRAINE - AUGUST 29: Ukrainian soldier prepares 155mm artillery shells in the ... [+] direction of Marinka, Ukraine on August 29, 2024. (Photo by Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu via Getty Images) Anadolu via Getty Images

Ukraine’s domestically produced 155mm artillery rounds are designed to meet NATO standards, such that they can be fired from the Western-provided howitzers, including the American M109, Polish AHS Krab, and British AS90. Additionally, the Ukrainian facility is reportedly able to produce standard high-explosive rounds and extended-range rounds.

Ammunition is useless without a system to fire it from. As such, Ukraine is making efforts to reduce their reliance on Western-provided howitzers as well. Following the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine began a development effort to domestically produce a self-propelled howitzer, the 2S22 Bohdana. The Bohdana is a 155mm system, with a firing range of 40 kilometers with standard rounds and 50 kilometers with extended-range ammunition. Ukraine chose a wheeled chassis for this system, utilizing the domestically produced KrAZ-6322, a 6x6 military truck. This design decision not only reduced reliance on foreign parts, but it also cuts the design time associated with a specialized tracked chassis.

First unveiled in 2018, the Bohdana underwent initial testing in 2021 and saw combat use in 2022. However, its usage has been limited with Oryxspioenkop.com stating that Ukraine has only lost 8 of the systems, compared to 70 M109s, 36 AHS Krabs, and 12 AS-90s. Regardless, they have played a key role in the war and will play an increasingly important role going forward. Production has ramped up, with Ukrainian President Zelensky recently stating that Ukraine is producing a “powerful” number of Bohdanas per month, making it the European leader in howitzer production.

DONETSK OBLAST, UKRAINE - OCTOBER 17: Ukrainian soldiers load 2S22 Bohdana self-propelled howitzer ... [+] during firing on Russian position on October 17, 2023 in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine. (Photo by Roman Chop/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images) Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images

It is important to note that 155mm is the NATO-standard for heavy artillery, as opposed to the Soviet-standard 152mm shells. This shift reflects Ukraine’s desire to better align with NATO military standards, enabling smoother logistical and strategic integration into Western defense frameworks moving forward. While Ukraine has the capacity to produce 152mm ammunition, the associated howitzers are from Soviet-era stockpiles. Furthermore, due to the ongoing war, Ukraine is unable to procure new 152mm howitzers from Russia, the primary producer of these systems.

Despite this shift toward aligning with NATO-standard equipment, Ukraine’s move to domestically produce artillery systems and ammunition also indicates a desire to reduce reliance on continuous Western military aid. Since 2014, NATO countries have supplied Ukraine with various artillery systems along with 155mm rounds. Artillery has become integral to Ukraine's tactics and defensive strategies. Earlier this year, delays in U.S. aid led to a shortage of 155mm rounds, which allowed Russia to make significant gains, including the capture of Avdiivka. As the conflict endures, Ukraine stands to benefit from decreasing its dependency and becoming more self-sufficient.

DONETSK OBLAST, UKRAINE - JANUARY 26: A 155mm artillery shell is being loaded onto 2S22 Bohdana ... [+] self-propelled howitzer on January 26, 2024 in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine. (Photo by Yuriy Mate/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images) Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images

Although developing such systems two years into the conflict may seem delayed, it is important to recognize the complexities involved in manufacturing howitzers and shells. There is no commercial sector that Ukraine could leverage for producing these items, and the infrastructure for producing 152mm shells is outdated. Moreover, artillery barrel production is a highly specialized process, requiring the use of advanced materials capable of withstanding extreme pressures and heat, along with precision engineering to ensure durability, accuracy, and longevity under heavy use. Given these challenges, Ukraine's rapid development of its own howitzer and ammunition production facilities is impressive mirroring their feats in other defense technology domains.

While the ability to produce artillery domestically may not guarantee victory for Ukraine, a shortage of artillery could prove decisive in losing the conflict. Therefore, Ukraine's efforts to increase domestic production of 155mm howitzers and ammunition represent a vital component of their war strategy.

VanceKelley on September 22nd, 2024 at 15:42 UTC »

> Russia firing around 10,000 rounds daily and Ukraine about 2,000.

1916's Battle of the Somme (fought in one part of the Western Front) the British began the attack with a week long artillery bombardment of 200,000 rounds each day.

Modern artillery is much more accurate than WW1 artillery, so many fewer shells need to be fired to achieve the same effect, I suppose.

RampantPrototyping on September 22nd, 2024 at 14:33 UTC »

Hopefully the factories get dedicated air defense

Gakoknight on September 22nd, 2024 at 13:44 UTC »

Mad "Fine, I'll do it myself" energy.