The Daily Populous Tuesday September 3rd, 2024 day edition
Authored by cepa.org and submitted by CEPAORG

Vladimir Putin’s visit to Mongolia is his first to a member of the International Criminal Court. That’s not a coincidence.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has declared Vladimir Putin a wanted man. He stands accused of war crimes, specifically the unlawful deportation and transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia. As a signatory to the Rome Statute, Mongolia was obliged to arrest him on his arrival on September 2. Instead, it rolled out the red carpet.

Of course, Putin would never have traveled if there was any chance of an arrest. The country had already assured Moscow the president would not be detained.

Sandwiched between two powerful neighbors, Russia and China, Mongolia has long been constrained in its freedom of maneuver, so Putin’s choice makes ruthless sense.

The issue has clearly been playing on the mind of the wanted man. He was forced to avoid the BRICS summit in South Africa last year, after the hosts first requested ICC exemption from arresting Putin and then negotiated non-attendance with the Russian leadership.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa explained that an attempt to arrest Putin would be seen as a declaration of war with Russia. Mongolia is likely to have been guided by the same fear.

The Kremlin said Putin’s visit was at the invitation of Mongolian President Ukhnaa Khurelsukh, so he could join commemorations for the 85th anniversary of the Soviet-Mongolian victory over Japan at the Khalkhin Gol River. While it has framed the trip as a diplomatic and historical event, there are several targets Moscow wants to hit.

First, to distract attention from the developments in Kursk and to help maintain Putin’s image as a strong leader at home and abroad. It is difficult to reestablish Russia as a respected global power when its president is in isolation and has not attended key international gatherings for two years.

Kremlin advisors hope his “fearless” appearance will send a signal to his supporters that the West cannot dictate terms to Russia. His approval rating, though still extremely high, fell a little to 73.6% from 77.1% during August amid Moscow’s lethargic response to the Kursk incursion.

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Second, Putin is willing to defy international legal norms to undermine international law. Hungary and Armenia, also ICC members, have assured the president that he would not be arrested on their soil, further eroding the court’s effectiveness. If the world order continues to weaken, the prospects for a tribunal for Russian war criminals, reparations and accountability would diminish significantly, dashing Ukraine’s hopes of a just peace.

Third, the Kremlin needs to tackle Russia’s economic challenges and, facing sanctions from the West, is seeking to expand its influence in Asia. The situation is delicate, as Moscow is competing with China over the region, and at the same time, it is dependent on Beijing’s political and economic help.

Mongolia is an important part of Putin’s energy plan, particularly with the “Power of Siberia 2” pipeline, which Russia hopes will strengthen China’s energy relationship with Moscow.

Mongolia’s position is precarious. With a population of around three million dispersed across a vast territory, it lacks significant military power. It is economically dependent on its powerful neighbors and looks attractive due to its rich natural resources, which are the backbone of its economy. More than one in four of its population lives in poverty.

Russia and China account for the majority of Mongolia’s trade and investment, with all trade routes passing through their territory. This dependence very obviously limits the country’s ability to make independent decisions.

The Ukrainian government has called on Mongolia to fulfill its obligations under the Rome Statute, arguing that the ICC warrant is recognized by Mongolia, and urged the government in Ulaanbaatar to transfer Putin to the court in the Hague. But while the country has said it maintains “steadfast support” for the ICC, that clearly isn’t true.

The European Commission also called on Mongolia to meet its obligations. The fact that it has chosen not to is the clearest possible demonstration of Western powerlessness in the face of Kremlin realpolitik. That will delight Putin, who is wholly contemptuous of rules-based politics.

Russia’s approach is to win by any means, regardless of the consequences. The West and the institutions it has helped to build lack anything like the same focus or determination.

Elena Davlikanova is a Democracy Fellow with the Center for European Policy Analysis. She is an experienced researcher and in 2022 was co-author of ‘The Work of the Ukrainian Parliament in Wartime’ and ‘The War of Narratives: The Image of Ukraine in Media.’

Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.

Ethereal-Zenith on September 3rd, 2024 at 04:51 UTC »

There’s not much that Mongolia could have done, if they were inclined to arrest Putin. The country is sandwiched between Russia and China and lacks the population to counter either of them if things get tough.

Synaps4 on September 3rd, 2024 at 03:12 UTC »

Article seems needlessly dramatic.

Does anyone really expect any country to risk war to uphold an icc warrant? Seriously?

It may not be in the letter of the treaty but I'm sure everyone involved knew that caveat was there.

BaylinerVR5 on September 3rd, 2024 at 02:36 UTC »

I mean, weren’t we threatening the ICC like 3 months ago?