The Daily Populous Friday August 23rd, 2024 evening edition
Authored by newsweek.com and submitted by newsweek

Kamala Harris has surged ahead of Donald Trump in a new national poll, leading the former president by 8 points.

The new poll, conducted by Bullfinch between August 19 and August 21, shows Harris with 47 percent of the vote and Trump with 39 percent among registered voters when third party candidates are included. The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent.

Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.

It is only the second time a national poll has shown Harris with an 8-point lead over her opponent after a Marquette poll on July 31 showed the vice president on 50 percent of the vote to Trump's 42 percent among likely voters in a matchup with third party candidates.

Since Biden ended his reelection campaign, making Harris the candidate, the polls have looked positive for the Democrats, with Harris consistently ahead of her opponent since July 26.

Vice President and 2024 Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks at a rally in Milwaukee on August 20, 2024. Harris is 8 points ahead of Trump, according to a new poll. Vice President and 2024 Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks at a rally in Milwaukee on August 20, 2024. Harris is 8 points ahead of Trump, according to a new poll. MAHKA ESLAMI/AFP Via Getty Images

According to FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker, the vice president now has a 3.6-point lead over Trump nationally—her largest polling average lead yet over the former president.

Despite the surge, as the November election gets closer, Harris' position in the polls could change if third party candidates drop out of the race.

Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy is expected to drop out of the race on Friday, according to reports, after withdrawing from the ballot in Arizona on Thursday following a dip in the polls.

"Third-party candidates often lose steam as the election approaches, but Kennedy's trajectory has been particularly ignominious. In three-way polls against Biden and Trump, he initially polled at 10 or 11 percent, then gradually faded to 8 (save for a bounce just after Biden's awful debate). In the Trump-Harris matchup, though, he's dropped to about 4 percent," pollster Nate Silver wrote in his Silver Bulletin newsletter.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Kennedy is currently polling at 4.7 percent.

Throughout the election cycle, state and national polls have shown that when third party candidates are included, Kennedy Jr. takes more votes from Trump than Harris.

For example, a Fox News survey of 1,034 Pennsylvania voters conducted between July 22 and July 24, showed that 10 percent of Trump's two-way supporters chose someone else when third party candidates were included, while only 7 percent of Harris supporters selected a different candidate.

Meanwhile, analysis by NBC revealed that a Kennedy withdrawal would probably help Trump more than it hurts him, possibly dampening Harris' lead in the polls.

National NBC News polls have shown that more Republican voters have positive views of Kennedy Jr. than Democrats. For example, in January, Kennedy held net-positive ratings from Republicans (+18) and independents (+4), while Democrats viewed him mostly negatively (-25).

In NBC's July poll, the divide was starker, with his approval rating among Democrats dropping to -38 points.

"Trump has a real incentive to get Kennedy out of the race," David B. Cohen, professor of political science at the University of Akron in Ohio, told Newsweek earlier this month.

Kennedy Jr. is expected to endorse Trump when he drops out, according to ABC News.

However, when asked directly by ABC News if he will be endorsing the former president, Kennedy said: "I will not confirm or deny that."

Newsweek has contacted representatives of Kennedy Jr. for comment.

PalpableMass on August 23rd, 2024 at 11:59 UTC »

It will still come down to <100,000 voters in swing states, sadly. And badly, for American democracy. The Electoral College is a broken institution that harms America.

strenuousobjector on August 23rd, 2024 at 11:54 UTC »

I won't be satisfied until her lead is so big she has dragged the whole ticket up and they flip states that were never even under consideration as a battleground state.

newnewtonium on August 23rd, 2024 at 10:35 UTC »

Register to vote today. Vote in November. Give Harris and Walz so many paths to victory that they can take the scenic route to the Whitehouse.