Iran might carry out an attack on Israel in the coming days, potentially even before the upcoming Thursday summit on the hostage deal negotiations, according to two sources familiar with the matter.
This represents a shift from recent assessments, which suggested that international pressure was restraining Iran from launching a direct attack against Israel.
The most recent evaluation by the Israeli intelligence community, formed within the past 24 hours, indicates that Iran has decided to directly target Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas Political Bureau Chief Ismail Haniyeh.
The updated assessment of the Israeli intelligence community is that Iran has decided to attack Israel directly in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh & may do within days, even before the August 15 hostage deal talks, per 2 sources — Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) August 11, 2024
The sources noted that this marks a significant change from recent assessments, which suggested that international pressure was preventing Iran from executing a direct strike against Israel.
A source with knowledge of the situation revealed that in recent days, there has been an internal debate in Iran between the Revolutionary Guards and the new Iranian president and his advisors. The debate centers on the nature and timing of the response to Haniyeh's assassination. The Revolutionary Guards have been advocating for a more severe and widespread response than the April 13 attack, while the president and his advisors believe that such a harsh response should be avoided. A man walks next to the apparent remains of a ballistic missile, as it lies in the desert near the Dead Sea, following a massive missile and drone attack by Iran on Israel, in southern Israel April 21, 2024 . (credit: RONEN ZVULUN/REUTERS)
Another source familiar with the situation said that the situation "remains fluid," with the internal debate in Iran ongoing, which means that Iranian decision-making could still change.
IDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari posted on X that there is no change in the Home Front Command directives following reports of an upcoming Iranian attack, saying that they will inform the public if any changes are necessary and that the IDF is monitoring enemy forces throughout the Middle East - with an emphasis on Iran and Hezbollah.
ZeroByter on August 12nd, 2024 at 14:49 UTC »
Israeli here:
Local news and security officials are talking about how Hezbollah's retaliation is even more scary than Iran's.
Iran is waiting to retaliate on purpose to intentionally cause Israel, and Israelis psychological distress and financial and economical damage.
And lastly, this time Israeli security officials are saying it's likely the retaliation will actually cause real damage, and may even last more than a day, and that "we are ready for it" (as much as one can be, I suppose).
Beratungsmarketing on August 12nd, 2024 at 14:32 UTC »
It is strange why Iran is waiting and waiting all this time. Maybe this time Iran wants to fire a large number of missiles and drones towards Israel and we will see one of the largest missile defense battles in the world in the coming days.
8_bw on August 12nd, 2024 at 13:10 UTC »
I am completely unsure about what they are going to do in retaliation. A repeat of their last "retaliation" against Israel would look pathetic again but with even more eyes on them and even more anger inside Iran. I'm afraid they are going to have to escalate in a massive way to put a dent in Israel that they can be satisfied with. I hope I'm wrong but if (or when) they do attack I think there's a high chance this gets much much worse. I'm usually the opposite of a doomer on these things but I don't like this one at all.
Maybe Iran will just take it lying down like they did last time. But it doesn't seem too likely