The Daily Populous Thursday August 8th, 2024 evening edition
Authored by newsweek.com and submitted by newsweek

Kamala Harris has taken an 8 percentage point lead over Donald Trump, according to a new poll.

The survey, conducted by Marquette Law School between July 24 and August 1, shows that when third party candidates are included, Harris leads among likely voters with 50 percent of the vote to Trump's 42 percent. The surge by Harris has improved the Democrats' position since May, when Trump was leading with 44 percent of the vote to Joe Biden's 41 percent.

Harris is also leading among registered voters, with 47 percent of the vote to Trump's 41 percent. In Marquette Law School's last poll in May, Trump was three points ahead of Biden among registered voters, securing 40 percent of the vote to the president's 37 percent.

Harris is also leading her opponent in a head-to-head matchup with the support of 52 percent of registered voters, while Trump is the choice for 48 percent.

Among likely voters, Harris received 53 percent and Trump 47 percent. The results include voters who initially did not choose Harris or Trump but who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose.

Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally in Romulus, Michigan, on August 7, 2024. Harris is ahead of Donald Trump among likely voters by 8 percentage points, according to a new poll. Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally in Romulus, Michigan, on August 7, 2024. Harris is ahead of Donald Trump among likely voters by 8 percentage points, according to a new poll. Carlos Osorio/AP

The lead for Harris marks a substantial improvement for the Democrats in a head-to-head lineup after Marquette Law School's survey from May showed Biden and Trump were tied among registered voters, while Trump was favored by 51 percent of likely voters and Biden 49 percent.

The poll surveyed 879 registered voters and 683 likely voters, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.

The polls have looked positive for Harris since she launched her campaign in July. All national poll aggregators now show she is in the lead, including pollster Nate Silver's model, which compiles the results of statewide polls and weights them based on reliability.

According to the model, Harris is leading Trump with 45.7 percent to his 43.8 percent.

Silver's model had indicated that Trump was polling ahead of the Democratic candidate for most of July, including in the weeks following Biden's withdrawal from the race. Harris first led Trump on July 31, according to data released on Sunday.

But despite Harris' lead, Silver noted the race remains close. He estimated Harris has a 50.5 percent chance of winning the Electoral College in November and a 66 percent chance of winning the popular vote.

Last week, Silver's model gave Trump a 54.9 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. Against Biden, Trump had been given a 73 percent chance of winning the White House.

Race to the White House also shows Harris winning the Electoral College, as she leads Trump with 275 electoral votes to his 262. Last week, the results were flipped, with the aggregator showing the Democratic candidate with 256 electoral votes to the GOP's 275.

Shortly after Biden left the race and endorsed Harris in July, Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio predicted in a memo that there would be a "short term" bump in polls for Harris in the coming weeks as her entrance into the race was expected to reenergize Democrats, referring to the anticipated boost as a "Harris Honeymoon."

capaho on August 8th, 2024 at 10:56 UTC »

Where is Trump this week? He’s been uncharacteristically quiet. Looks like he’s hiding out at Mar-a-Lago.

Bulky_Ad4472 on August 8th, 2024 at 10:55 UTC »

I love how unhinged this is making Trump. I can't wait for his next hateful and desperate word salad. It only alienates him more.

newnewtonium on August 8th, 2024 at 10:52 UTC »

Let's make it a landslide. Register to vote today. And send the weirdo Trump packing in November.