The Daily Populous Sunday August 4th, 2024 morning edition
Authored by nymag.com and submitted by elliottbaytrail

It has now been nearly two weeks since Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 presidential race and endorsed Kamala Harris as his presumptive replacement as Democratic nominee. Unsurprisingly, Harris got a quick bounce in the polls as the new, younger, and fresher rival to Donald Trump. But now it’s becoming clear this was a trend, not just a momentary bounce.

According to the FiveThirtyEight national polling averages, Harris is leading Trump by 1.4 percent (45.0 to 43.6 percent), with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 5.6 percent. When Biden dropped out, he was trailing in the same averages by 3.2 percent. In a contest as static as the 2024 presidential race had been, that’s a big swing.

The trend lines in national polls are equally telling. YouGov/Economist tested Harris against Trump back on July 16, showing Trump leading by five percent (44 to 39 percent). Then on July 23, after Biden’s withdrawal, the same pollster had Trump leading Harris by three percent (44 to 41 percent). On July 30 YouGov/Economist showed Harris leading Trump by two percent (46 to 44 percent). Similarly, RMG Research showed Trump leading Harris by two points (48 to 46 percent) on July 23, with Harris leading Trump by five points (47 to 42 percent) on July 31.

Polls comparing the Harris-Trump matchup to the earlier Biden-Trump matchup mostly show the same pro-Democratic trend. On July 17, the Morning Consult tracking poll had Trump leading Biden by four points (46 percent to 42 percent). On July 24, the same poll had Harris leading Trump by a point (46 percent to 45 percent). On July 16, Reuters-Ipsos showed Trump ahead of Biden by two points (43 percent to 41 percent). On July 23, the same poll gave Harris a two-point lead (44 percent to 42 percent). On July 2, the New York Times–Siena showed Trump leading Biden by six points (49 percent to 43 percent). On July 24, that pollster showed Trump leading Harris by one point (48 percent to 47 percent). Similarly, on July 2 the Wall Street Journal had Trump leading Biden by six points (48 to 42 percent), and Harris by just two points 49 - 47 percent) on July 25. Both Times-Siena and WSJ showed Harris ahead by a point when non-major-party candidates were included.

Battleground-state data has been slower to arrive, but what we have shows Harris improving on Biden’s performance quite consistently. A battery of Emerson–The Hill polls taken from July 22 to July 23 of five battleground states showed Wisconsin tied at 47 percent and Trump leading Harris by five points (49 percent to 44 percent) in Arizona; two points (48 percent to 46 percent) in Georgia; one point (46 percent to 45 percent) in Michigan; and two points (48 percent to 46 percent) in Pennsylvania. What’s more significant are the trend lines since the last polls from Emerson in mid-July, testing Biden against Trump:

Emerson polling trend (From Biden vs Trump before debate To Harris vs Trump current)

Wisconsin - 🔵 Harris +2 — Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 25, 2024

Most recently, and perhaps impressively, Bloomberg/Morning Consult has released a new batch of seven battleground state polls taken from July 24-28. Overall, they showed Harris leading Trump by one percent (48 to 47 percent), as compared to a two-point Trump lead over Biden in early July. The individual state gains by Harris were also striking: she led by two percent (49 to 47 percent) in Arizona, a real problem state for Biden; by two percent (47 to 45 percent) in Nevada; by two percent (49 to 47 percent) in Wisconsin; and by an astonishing 11 percent (53 to 42 percent) in Michigan. Harris was tied with Trump in Georgia at 47 percent, and trailed him by two percent (46 to 48 percent) in North Carolina and by four percent (46 to 50 percent) in Pennsylvania.

Three battleground states have enough post-Biden-Harris-switch polling now for FiveThirtyEight to compile averages, and all of them show very close races. In Georgia, Trump leads by 1.1 percent (45.9 to 44.8 percent), but Harris leads in Michigan by 1.8 percent (44.8 to 43.1 percent) and most surprisingly, in Pennsylvania by 0.4 percent (45.1 to 44.6 percent).

There is also significant evidence that Harris is doing better than Biden among the young, Black, and Latino voting categories on which Biden’s 2020 win depended. In the most recent Times-Siena poll, she leads Trump among under-30 likely voters by 59 percent to 38 percent, among Black likely voters by 72 percent to 19 percent, and among Latino likely voters by 60 percent to 36 percent. A new Axios–Generation Lab poll of 18 to 34-year-old voters showed Harris expanding a six-point Biden lead (53 percent to 47 percent) to 20 points (60 percent to 40 percent).

More generally, Harris is becoming more popular than Biden. FiveThirtyEight’s favorability averages for Harris currently show her at 42.4 percent favorable/49.1 percent unfavorable, up from a 36/54 ratio a month ago, and distinctly better than Biden’s 38/54 margin when he dropped out of the race.

The odds are good that with Harris having the opportunity to dominate political news with the reveal of her VP pick and soon afterwards a united Democratic convention, she can keep this positive trend in her standing up and running for most of this month. That’s if she makes no big mistakes, and if the Trump-Vance ticket continues to show signs of disorientation at the new contest it faces.

elliottbaytrail on August 3rd, 2024 at 19:25 UTC »

Polling and the national mood will change in the coming days. What’s important about this trend is that the positive energy and the message of hope that Harris brings to the table are resonating with independents and undecided voters.

They can envision their support of a Harris presidency, and they are disgusted with a Trump 2.0 presidency. That is the mood these voters need to solidify and bring with them when they fill the ballot this November.

We can help amplify this mood by continuing to bring positivity and hope to the forefront of what will be heated (and on Trump’s end, assuredly and already nasty) political discussions in the coming weeks.

We are not going back. We choose hope.

No_Biscotti_7110 on August 3rd, 2024 at 19:19 UTC »

Kamala is actually running a good consistent campaign, Trump got two boosts after Biden fell apart during the debate and he got his ear clipped but since then it’s all been downhill for his campaign

Legitimate-Nerve2278 on August 3rd, 2024 at 19:18 UTC »

Woof man. he got shot and Nobody cared.

Fuckn beautiful