Evan Gershkovich release: Vladimir Putin recalculates Trump–Harris 2024.

There’s one American who must be angry about the release of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and 23 other Westerners from prisons in Russia and elsewhere. That angry American is Donald Trump.

Trump has bragged, as he has when speaking of many problems, that only he could solve the problem. Back in May, he wrote on his Truth Social platform that Gershkovich

will be released almost immediately after the Election, but definitely before I assume Office. He will be HOME, SAFE, AND WITH HIS FAMILY. Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, would do that for me, but not for anyone else, and WE WILL BE PAYING NOTHING!

Few social media posts, even from Trump’s hand, have aged so poorly.

We don’t yet know the full details of the deal, in which Russia freed 16 prisoners, including four Americans (all falsely accused), in exchange for the release of eight Russian prisoners (who really did commit crimes). Nor do we know why Putin, President Joe Biden, and the leaders of five other countries were able to strike the deal now. But a few inferences can be drawn.

First, and most obviously, it seems that we don’t need Trump as a savior to wrest the nation’s foreign policy from the bungling clutches of Team Biden. It turns out that sometimes Biden & Co. know what they’re doing.

Second, today’s prisoner exchange refutes Trump’s most basic premise—and deepest misunderstanding—of international politics: that “the art of the deal” (as he titled one of his books) is based on personal relationships. Trump figured that Putin would release Gershkovich as a personal favor to him. “I like Putin, he likes me,” the narcissist once said after a meeting in which the wily man in the Kremlin and former KGB agent pushed all the right buttons.

But it turns out that most world leaders make decisions based on their interests. And for reasons that haven’t yet been revealed, Putin decided that it was in his interest to make the deal now.

Third, on a broader level, it seems that countries that are implacable foes on some issues—as, for instance, the U.S. and Russia are on the fate of Ukraine—can sometimes negotiate agreements on other issues. At a news conference Thursday, when he announced the deal, Biden was asked whether the trade might open other avenues of discussion between Washington and Moscow. Biden replied, “As my sister used to say, ‘From your lips to God’s ear’ ”—though Biden stressed that Putin would have to be the one who changed his behavior. Asked if he planned to call Putin, he replied, “I don’t need to talk to Putin.” Biden also stressed that the trades could not have occurred without the cooperation of allies—notably Germany, which freed Vadim Krasikov, an FSB agent who murdered a Chechen dissident in a Berlin park, as part of the massive prisoner trade.

Finally, there might be one more inference to draw from the trade, though for the moment this is hypothetical. It may be that Putin has recalculated the odds of this November’s American presidential election. It could be that Trump was, to some degree, right—that Putin (assuming he wanted to make a deal at some point) was waiting until Trump won so that the two men could resume their beautiful friendship. If that’s the case, this doesn’t falsify my point about leaders and interests; Putin could have calculated that it was in his interest to wait for Trump’s return to power because Trump—who has said he wants to restore good relations with Russia—would view the release as a favor and treat Moscow accordingly.

However, like most world leaders, Putin has no doubt been reading the polls, and he may have concluded that Trump is not going to win, that Vice President Kamala Harris has a better chance of taking office, and that Harris is no less suspicious of Putin’s Russia than Biden is—that, like Biden, she views Russia as a threat to the world order and sees Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as an important ally very much worth defending.

Therefore, Putin might have reasoned, it’s better to take a deal now so it looks as if he’s acting without an eye to our election. This is particularly true if he’s interested in resuming negotiations or striking deals on other, more geopolitical issues—though there’s no evidence at the moment that he is.

Either way, this is a major blow to Trump. It turns out that his return to the White House was not a precondition for wrangling Gershkovich and others—including Paul Whelan, who was arrested in 2018—out of their Russian hellholes. It also turns out his view of the world is seriously flawed. Like Willy Loman in Death of a Salesman, he thinks it’s all about the friendships. It’s true that friendships can help set up a meeting, but they don’t make the deal. A deal depends on the goods to be had—it depends on what’s put on the table and whether the other side wants it. Trump never had a plan for what to put on the table. He thought that because some other leaders laughed at his jokes, swooned at his golf game, and called him “sir,” he was the shiny jewel on the table; he was the reason others wanted to make a deal.

Willy Loman was washed up as a salesman by the end of the play. Maybe Donald Trump will be washed up by the end of this election season. And unlike Arthur Miller’s play, that won’t be a tragedy.

This post has been updated since it was originally published to reflect developing news events.