Kamala Harris Now Favorite To Win Election for First Time

For the first time since launching her presidential campaign, Kamala Harris is predicted to win the 2024 election, according to one online betting company.

Online prediction market PredictIt shows that Harris is the favorite to win in November, with shares of a Harris victory being sold for 52 cents, while shares for a Donald Trump victory are being sold at 50 cents.

PredictIt works by asking you to buy shares, ranging from 1 cent to 99 cents, which pay off at $1 per share if the event takes place. The likelier events are more expensive to purchase a share of.

Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.

Harris first moved ahead of Trump in odds on the platform on Wednesday afternoon, before moving into a tie shortly after 6 p.m. ET and later retaking the lead.

However, other betting platforms show that Trump has a lead over Harris. Trump maintains a large lead over Harris on the Polymarket betting platform, with 55 percent odds compared to Harris' 43 percent, though his lead has shrunk since President Joe Biden ended his reelection campaign.

Since Harris launched her presidential campaign two weeks ago, polls have shown that she has reduced Trump's lead over the Democrats compared to when Biden was on the ticket.

In a poll conducted by Morning Consult after Biden ended his reelection campaign, the former president was only 2 points ahead of Harris, after a previous survey by the same pollsters put Trump four points ahead of Biden—46 percent to the president's 42 percent.

Vice President and 2024 Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris smiles as she takes the podium to speak at a campaign rally in Atlanta on July 30, 2024. Vice President and 2024 Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris smiles as she takes the podium to speak at a campaign rally in Atlanta on July 30, 2024. Elijah Nouvelage / AFP/Getty Images

Meanwhile, in the latest poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College, Trump was leading Harris by 2 points among registered voters and 1 point among likely voters. That represents a 5-point cut to Trump's lead since early July, when Trump had a 6-point lead over Biden in a poll by The Times and Siena.

However, other polls have shown Harris with a significant lead over Trump both nationally and in key swing states. In the latest poll by Leger, Harris had a 7-point lead over Trump when third party candidates were included, well outside the margin of error.

A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll conducted from July 24 to July 28 also showed Harris comfortably ahead of her opponent in Michigan, on 53 percent compared with Trump's 42 percent.

Separately, Change Research polled 2,228 registered voters in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin between the ages of 18-30 last week. The poll saw Harris leading her opponent by 24 points, with Trump on 29 percent to her 53 percent.

Since Harris emerged as the frontrunner to be the Democratic nominee, Republicans have sought to downplay polling that might show an increase in her support.

"The Democrats and the MSM will try and tout these polls as proof that the race has changed," pollster Tony Fabrizio wrote in a memo circulated to reporters by Trump's campaign. "But the fundamentals of the race stay the same."

Polls had for months showed Trump leading Biden in several key battleground states.