The Daily Populous Friday August 2nd, 2024 evening edition
Authored by newsweek.com and submitted by newsweek

Kamala Harris is now leading her opponent, Donald Trump, in eight national polls.

The new polls show the presumptive Democratic nominee is leading the former president by between 1 and 4 points.

RMG Research is the latest pollster to find Harris leading Trump in the national popular vote. The firm released a survey on Friday showing her with a 5-point lead (47 percent to 47 percent) over the former president. The poll was conducted among 3,000 registered voters from July 29 to July 31.

A poll conducted by Civiqs between July 27 and July 30 also showed Harris with a 5-point lead over Trump. Among 1,123 registered voters, Harris leads Trump 49 percent to 45 percent. Her lead is outside the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Harris is ahead of the Republican presidential nominee by 3 points in a poll by Leger conducted between July 26 and July 28. The poll, which surveyed 1,002 U.S. residents and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, showed she was leading Trump with 49 percent of the vote to his 46 percent. That represents a 4-point increase for the Democrat since Leger's June poll.

When third-party candidates were included in the Leger poll, Harris' lead over Trump grew to 7 points, to 48 percent, compared to the former president's 41 percent.

Vice President Kamala Harris in Atlanta on July 30. Harris is now leading her opponent Donald Trump in eight national polls. Vice President Kamala Harris in Atlanta on July 30. Harris is now leading her opponent Donald Trump in eight national polls. Elijah Nouvelage / AFP/Getty Images

Harris had a smaller lead of 2 points over Trump in four other national polls. These include a poll conducted by The Economist and YouGov, where the vice president polled at 46 percent among 1,434 registered voters—a lead within the poll's 3 percent margin of error.

The other polls, conducted between July 23 and July 30 by Redfield and Wilton Strategies, Angus Reid, and Florida Atlantic University, showed Harris leading by 2 points—within each poll's margin of error.

Harris' lead was smallest in a poll of 2,223 registered U.S. voters conducted by Morning Consult between July 26 and July 28. She led Trump by 1 point—47 percent to the former president's 46 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Newsweek reached out to representatives for Trump and Harris for comment via email.

Since she launched her campaign two weeks ago, polls have been largely positive for Harris. They show that she has narrowed the gap on Trump compared to when President Joe Biden was on the ticket. Polls have also shown the vice president leading in multiple swing states that could play a pivotal role in deciding the election in November.

However, a number of polling experts still believe Trump is still the current favorite to win in November.

According to election analyst and statistician Nate Silver, while Harris is more likely to win the popular vote, Trump has a greater chance of winning the Electoral College.

Silver's model shows that Trump has a 54.9 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, while Harris' chances stand at 44.6 percent. In the popular vote, Harris has a 53.5 percent chance of winning, while Trump has a 46.5 percent chance.

The model also showed Harris as a slight favorite to win Michigan, giving her about a 54 percent chance to carry the state, while Trump had about a 46 percent chance. Wisconsin, another crucial battleground, was tied, with each candidate having a 50 percent chance of carrying it in November.

It gave Trump a narrow edge in Pennsylvania, where the former president had about a 53 percent chance of winning; Harris had a 47 percent chance of winning it. Trump held more significant leads in other swing states Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina.

Silver correctly predicted 49 of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election.

Meanwhile, aggregate polls from The New York Times, The Hill, and RealClearPolitics show Trump leading Harris by between 1 and 2 points. However, they also show Trump leading Harris at a smaller margin than his lead over Biden prior to the president's exit from the race.

Harris is expected to decide who will be her running mate in the coming days. The two will then travel to key swing states across the U.S. next week as she aims to sustain the momentum her campaign garnered since she replaced Biden at the top of the ticket. The Democratic National Convention will be held the following week in Chicago.

Trump, meanwhile, has two events on his calendar for the next week. According to his campaign website, he is set to hold campaign rallies in Atlanta, Georgia, on August 3, and in Bozeman, Montana, on August 9.

Update 8/2/24, 12:12 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information and background.

HappyAmbition706 on August 2nd, 2024 at 10:43 UTC »

It matters less for if the polls are well-done and accurate. What really matters is breaking Trump's lie that the election is already decided and he won. It helps him "justify" his election workers to "adjust" the counts, and fire up the MAGAts that the only valid result is a Trump win. All while demotivating Democrats to even try.

Trump will lose. Now go out, vote and make it happen!

bigbowlowrong on August 2nd, 2024 at 10:00 UTC »

I’ll begin being quietly confident when I start seeing reliable polls showing her in front in Pennsylvania.

Or, in my dream world, Florida😆

LuinAelin on August 2nd, 2024 at 09:59 UTC »

It's hilarious that all Trump had was "Biden is old" and now he doesn't know what to do because he expected that to be enough