A new poll shows the state of the 2024 presidential race in Florida, with one political expert warning that the state may be a difficult win for former President Donald Trump.
On Tuesday, a new poll by the University of North Florida's Public Opinion Research Lab found how likely Florida voters feel about the current presidential race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
According to the poll, first reported by The Palm Beach Post, Trump currently leads Harris by 7 percentage points in Florida (49 percent to 42 percent).
In a statement to The Palm Beach Post, Michael Binder, the director of the UNH polling lab and political science professor, said, "It's not a huge surprise to see Trump ahead in his home state of Florida, which he won by three points in 2020."
However, Binder noted, "With Harris just entering the race, enthusiasm amongst her supporters has livened up what was once thought to be an easy win for Trump in Florida."
Newsweek reached out to Trump's spokesperson and a spokesperson for Harris's campaign via email for comment.
The poll comes ahead of the November election where Trump and Harris are set to face off after President Joe Biden announced that he was dropping out of the race, following calls for him to do so.
RealClearPolitics' average of several recent national polls showed Trump holding a 1.7 percentage point lead over Harris, who is expected to be officially named the Democratic nominee at the Democratic National Convention next month.
At around the same time in 2020, polling from poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight found Trump trailing Biden in Florida by around 6.2 points. However, Trump went on to beat Biden in the state by roughly 3 points, despite losing the presidency.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump in Saint Cloud, Minnesota, on July 27, 2024. A new poll shows Trump only holding a small lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in his home state of Florida. Former U.S. President Donald Trump in Saint Cloud, Minnesota, on July 27, 2024. A new poll shows Trump only holding a small lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in his home state of Florida. ALEX WROBLEWSKI/AFP via Getty Images/Getty Images
Florida has traditionally been a key swing state, voting for Bill Clinton in 1996 and Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, but more recently, it has become a Republican stronghold. In November 2022, GOP Governor Ron DeSantis secured reelection over his Democratic challenger by 59.4 percent of the vote against 40 percent.
Several other polls were also conducted among Florida voters before Biden announced his plans to drop out and endorse Harris.
Earlier this month, a poll conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies in partnership with The Telegraph, found Trump leading Biden by 45 percent to 41 percent in Florida, prior to Biden's decision to drop out of the race.
Another poll by FOX 13/InsiderAdvantage found Trump leading Biden by 6 percentage points (50 percent to 44 percent) in Florida.
The FOX 13/InsiderAdvantage poll asked voters about a matchup between Trump and Harris and found the former president leading by 10 percentage points (49 percent to 39 percent).
hannahsflora on July 30th, 2024 at 14:58 UTC »
The thing that gives me hope here is that Florida has an abortion amendment on this ballot and - as we've seen in other states - abortion on the ballot tends to drive turnout.
That said, I realize that a lot of people will still vote for the abortion amendment while also voting R straight down the ticket, but it does give me hope that this will drive out some people for Kamala that don't usually vote because they feel Florida is so red there's no point.
OregonTripleBeam on July 30th, 2024 at 14:52 UTC »
I wouldn't bet on it, but I do hope that Trump loses sleep at just the thought of it being possible.
AngusMcTibbins on July 30th, 2024 at 14:51 UTC »
With all the grassroots donations rolling in to Harris, we might as well make the republicans play some defense. Florida volunteers for Harris are absolutely surging right now. We may not have the votes yet, but the energy is there.
I'm rooting for you, Florida friends, keep up the good fight. At the least, maybe we can defeat Rick Scott and elect Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) to the senate
https://www.debbieforflorida.com/