The Daily Populous Wednesday July 31st, 2024 morning edition
Authored by kyivindependent.com and submitted by alpacinohairline

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Russia's reliance on China has developed to the point where Beijing could end a war with one phone call, Finnish President Alexander Stubb said in an interview with Bloomberg published on July 3.

"Russia is so dependent on China right now," Stubb told Bloomberg.

"One phone call from President Xi Jinping would solve this crisis."

Although China officially maintains a neutral stance on Russia's full-scale war in Ukraine and denies providing lethal aid, Beijing and Moscow continue to strengthen their ties. This was underscored by Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to China in May.

Various countries, including the United States, have accused China of continuously aiding Russia's war machine in Ukraine by providing machine tools, weapons technology, satellite imagery, semiconductors, and other dual-use technologies.

China accounted for about 28% of Russia's total trade last year, up from 19% in 2021. The European Union's share of trade with Russia fell from 36% to 17% during this period, according to Bloomberg.

"If he (Xi) were to say, 'Time to start negotiating peace,' Russia would be forced to do that," Stubb said.

"They would have no other choice."

Xi and Putin are expected to hold talks at the 24th meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which will be held from July 3 to 4 in Astana.

Stubb said Beijing could also benefit from ending Russia's "aggressive and colonial war" in Ukraine.

"It needs to protect the international rules which are linked to territorial integrity and sovereignty," Stubb said, adding that it would "show leadership from China."

Stubb also said it is "out of the question now" to push for a ceasefire.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, while visiting Kyiv on July 2, urged President Volodymyr Zelensky to consider a ceasefire to "speed up peace talks." While praising Ukraine's peace initiatives, Orban said that they take "too long."

"There needs to be a genuine peace negotiation," Stubb said.

"The only thing that Russia understands is power. And therefore, the more we can help Ukraine now, the faster we'll get the war to end."

complex_scrotum on July 30th, 2024 at 19:14 UTC »

This may sound very cynical, but why would China care about Europeans killing each other?

zoziw on July 30th, 2024 at 17:20 UTC »

First, Xi isn't going to make that call because he wants Taiwan and this is both a precedent and learning experience for that.

Second, I don't believe it would work anyways. We live in a Western news bubble but outside of NATO, South Korea, Japan, New Zealand and Australia, the rest of the world is far more ambivalent about this with many taking neutral stances or even favouring Russia. Chinese support helps but I don't think it is critical and Russia has other countries it can trade with and get supplies from.

vhu9644 on July 30th, 2024 at 17:20 UTC »

I don’t see how China unilaterally ending the war would be at all good for China.

Would the west release trade restrictions from this? Would Russia remain tied to the Chinese economy from this? Would the west change its stance on Taiwanese sovereignty?

Sure China might be able to exert the pressure needed to end the war. But coming out looking like “a leader” or what not by turning the west’s scrutiny towards them, ending a beneficial trade partnership, while receiving no concessions just seems like a terrible deal for them. I might be missing something, but I see no real reason China would even want to exert this kind of pressure on Russia.