Wind and solar overtake EU fossil fuels in the first half of 2024

The transformation of the EU’s electricity system has been swift over recent years. The first half of 2024 in particular has seen almost unprecedented falls in fossil generation despite demand growing. Renewables have played a vital role in alleviating high power prices in the bloc, but sustaining the pace of this transition will not be an easy feat. It will require dedicated policy action and implementation to ease barriers to future wind and solar deployment.

Annual additions of EU solar capacity increased by at least 40% or more in the three years up to and including 2023. While annual additions are expected to continue to increase, the growth rate of additions is forecast to slow to under 20% per year. Such growth would still be sufficient to reach the EU’s target of 750 GWdc installed capacity by 2030 under the REPowerEU plan. However, the latest Member State plans aim to collectively deliver only 650 GWdc by 2030, exposing a gap between EU energy goals and national ambitions.

The EU’s wind capacity additions are expected to ramp up only from 2025 onwards, as longer project lead times mean that the increased auction volumes and investment decisions in 2023 will take longer to deliver larger deployment. However, under current policy conditions, the EU is still forecast to fall 30 GW short of the minimum 425 GW required to meet its 2030 target, and further short of the 500 GW stipulated in the REPowerEU plan.

As power prices return to pre-crisis levels, Europe cannot rely on the market alone to drive the necessary acceleration of renewables deployment. Well-designed and implemented incentive schemes will remain important to sustaining momentum, as demonstrated by the impressive solar expansion continuing in Germany in 2024. Non-market barriers, such as grid capacity constraints, must also be overcome. This is evident in the Netherlands, where the network has struggled to keep pace with the country’s solar boom.

Progress has already been made in developing policies to tackle these challenges, but rapid action is needed to unlock faster growth in renewables. Ursula von der Leyen’s reappointment as President of the European Commission confirms a continued mandate to deliver on the Green Deal’s ambitious targets, as she remains firmly committed to the EU’s leadership on climate action. Thoughtful and rapid intervention to deliver on these goals is the only way to further reduce Europe’s costly reliance on fossil fuelled generation and align the EU’s energy goals with its climate obligations.