Donald Trump's Chances of Winning Election Decline After Biden Drops Out

Donald Trump's chances of winning the 2024 election have fallen since President Joe Biden announced he would be ending his campaign for reelection, according to bookmakers.

Trump was given a 71 percent chance of winning November's race by multiple U.K. and Ireland-based bookmakers on July 18, as Biden faced pressure to end his reelection bid in the wake of the president's poor CNN debate performance in June, according to Oddschecker.

Biden announced on Sunday that it would be in the "best interest of my party and the country" to not seek reelection and to allow a new Democratic candidate to face off against Trump in November. Biden went on to endorse Vice President Kamala Harris for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination.

As of Monday, several bookmakers are now suggesting Trump's chances of winning the 2024 election have fallen to 66 percent, whereas others are saying they have only dipped slightly to 69 percent.

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan, on July 20, 2024. Trump's chances of winning the election have fallen since President Joe Biden exited the race. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan, on July 20, 2024. Trump's chances of winning the election have fallen since President Joe Biden exited the race. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Oddschecker spokesperson Leon Blackman confirmed Trump's 2024 chances have had a "marginal decrease" since Biden pulled out of the race.

"However, we've seen a larger decrease in the number of total bets on our site for Trump, as his percentage of total bets has declined from 62.7 percent to 44.6 percent following the Biden news," Blackman told Newsweek.

In comparison, Harris, who is now clear favorite to win her party's 2024 nomination in the wake of Biden's endorsement, is thought to have a 33 percent chance of winning the election. However, these odds may increase if it becomes more apparent she will be the candidate facing off against Trump in November.

Harris confirmed that she will be seeking the Democratic Party's presidential nomination after Biden ended his campaign.

"I will do everything in my power to unite the Democratic Party—and unite our nation—to defeat Donald Trump and his extreme Project 2025 agenda," Harris said.

Even before his stumbling debate performance on June 27, Biden, 81, had long faced concerns about whether he had the physical and cognitive ability to run for a second term in office.

With Biden ending his 2024 campaign, Trump, 78, is now the oldest presidential nominee in U.S. history. If Harris is confirmed as the Democrat's 2024 nomination, she will be 60 by the time of November's election, 18 years younger than her potential Republican rival.

Trump is running for a second term in the White House having been the first president in history to be convicted of a crime after he was found guilty of 34 felony falsifying business records charges following his hush money trial.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the election is "not over," while mocking Biden's cognitive abilities.

"Tomorrow Crooked Joe Biden's going to wake up and forget that he dropped out of the race today," Trump said.

Donald Trump's office has been contacted by Newsweek for further comment via email.

A number of top Democrats considered potential Biden replacements, such as governors Gavin Newsom of California and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, as well as Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, have all backed Harris in the wake of Biden pulling out of the 2024 race.

There has also been a reported surge in public donations to the Democrats since Biden said he would end his campaign following weeks of pressure.

Update, 7/22/2024 6:47 a.m. ET: This article has been updated with comment from Oddschecker spokesman Leon Blackman.