The Daily Populous Tuesday July 23rd, 2024 morning edition
Authored by newsweek.com and submitted by plz-let-me-in

Vice president Kamala Harris, the current leading candidate to replace Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee, is leading former president Donald Trump in three national polls.

Biden announced he would not be seeking reelection on Sunday and endorsed Harris as his successor. The decision came after he faced increasing political pressure to stand down, with fellow Democrats, donors and voters all raising concerns about his age and fitness after his poor presidential debate performance on June 27, and his subsequent diagnosis with COVID-19.

While Trump has consistently led both Harris and Biden in most national polls, in three polls this month, all conducted before Biden stepped down, Harris narrowly led Trump in a hypothetical head-to-head, with each of her leads falling within the margin of error.

The most recent national poll putting Harris in front was conducted by Marist for NPR and PBS News between July 9 and July 10 and surveyed 1,309 adults. Harris garnered 50 percent support compared to Trump's 49 percent, with just 1 percent of respondents remaining undecided. This poll had a margin of error of +/- 3.3.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and vice president Kamala Harris. Three national polls put Harris ahead in a theoretical head-to-head. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and vice president Kamala Harris. Three national polls put Harris ahead in a theoretical head-to-head. Gerald Herbert and Carlos Osorio/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Marist is a reputable pollster according to aggregator FiveThirtyEight, which ranks the firm 6th on its list of 277 firms for its historical track record and transparent methodology, giving it a rating of 2.9 stars out of three.

The second most recent national poll with Harris leading was conducted by Ipsos for ABC News between July 5 and July 9. It presented a similar picture, with Harris leading Trump by 2 percentage points, receiving 42 percent of the vote to Trump's 40 percent. The poll, which surveyed 2,431 adults, also revealed that 4 percent of respondents would vote for someone else, and 14 percent would not vote at all. The margin of error for this poll was +/- 2.1 percentage points.

Ipsos is also considered a reputable pollster. FiveThirtyEight ranks it 17th out of 277 firms, giving it a rating of 2.8 stars out of three.

The third poll, conducted by Bendixen and Amandi International for ABC News from July 2 to July 6, also showed Harris with a slight advantage over Trump. In this survey of 1,000 likely voters, Harris received 42 percent support, while Trump has 41 percent. The poll indicated that 5 percent of respondents would vote for someone else, and 12 percent were undecided. The margin of error was +/- 3.1 percentage points.

FiveThirtyEight ranks Bendixen and Amandi International 245th out of 277 firms, giving it a rating of 1.0 stars out of three.

Despite some national polls showing Harris in the lead, other national polls have Trump leading, and Trump currently leads or ties polling in all the most important swing states making him the current favorite to win the White House in November based on expected Electoral College votes.

Newsweek has contacted the campaigns of Harris and Trump for comment via email.

mouthsmasher on July 22nd, 2024 at 23:42 UTC »

I don't care about national polls. Trump always loses the popular vote by millions. All I care about are polls that reveal what the electoral college is likely to do.

whooo_me on July 22nd, 2024 at 22:54 UTC »

I don't think anyone knows how to poll accurately in a week or so where there was an assassination attempt on one candidate and the incumbent President dropped out.

It's a great sign that she's polling this well so early but it's all chaotic.

I did see one interesting poll - by election time, 89% of Democrats supported Hillary Clinton in 2016; whereas Harris already has 94% support. That's a massively positive stat.

dattru on July 22nd, 2024 at 22:42 UTC »

It’s not enough that Trump loses. the Republican party must lose both house and Senate. It is time to stop the move towards authoritarianism