US reputation on the line at Second Thomas Shoal

Taiwan, Ukraine and Gaza get most of the attention these days. But the United States’ reputation as a reliable ally is nowhere more at stake than in the Philippines. And that reputation is on the verge of going down the drain.

June 17 saw the most recent and most violent effort yet by the China Coast Guard to prevent the Philippines from resupplying the BNP Sierra Madre, an old navy ship deliberately grounded on Second Thomas Shoal and manned by a detachment of sailors and marines to assert Philippine control of the sea feature.

This shouldn’t be necessary since Second Thomas Shoal is well within the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). However, China also claims ownership and has been interfering with Philippine Coast Guard and Navy resupply efforts with increasing force.

This time, brandishing knives, axes and spears, flashing lasers and using sound weapons and ramming against outnumbered Philippine boats, the Chinese reportedly seriously injured a Philippine sailor, damaged and seized Philippine boats and seized property.

Accounts differ as to whether one Philippine boat slipped through. Regardless, this was the most violent Chinese action against the Philippines to date.

Will clashes between the China Coast Guard and Philippine forces intensify?

Yes. The Chinese have been clear about what they intend to do with Philippine maritime territory coveted by Beijing: dominate, control, if necessary seize and occupy – and make it impossible for their smaller, outmatched victims to retake it.

This is the pattern China has used throughout the South China Sea. And China is clearly willing to use force to get its way. These clashes will continue until the Philippines backs off (surrenders) or the US steps in and lives up to its mutual defense treaty commitments to its Philippine ally.

It’s not just the China Coast Guard that’s active in Philippine territory. The People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia is also operating in conjunction with the China Coast Guard, as is the “regular” Chinese fishing fleet. And the Chinese navy is always nearby.

Nobody likes to admit it but China used its numbers advantage and its manmade island bases to establish de facto control of the South China Sea at least seven or eight years ago. Its grip continues to tighten.

The situation is coming to a head. The Philippines is not in a position to withstand the much larger Chinese force that is deployed and that can be increased at will at Second Thomas Shoal.

Unless Manila agrees to a humiliating deal with China to give up ultimate control of Second Thomas Shoal in exchange for Chinese permission to resupply the BNP Sierra Madre, the Philippines will eventually have to evacuate the detachment aboard the grounded ship

Should the United States get directly involved?

Only if the United States cares to live up to its promises to defend a mutual defense treaty ally. If the Biden administration does nothing to help its allies, America’s reputation and reliability will be shredded – not just in Manila or Asia but worldwide.

Tokyo is no doubt watching closely – as it has a similar treaty promising American protection from outside aggression. The US has already sold out the Philippines to China on two occasions in recent years:

2012 at Scarborough Shoal, where the Chinese illegally occupied Philippine territory, and

2016 following the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling that overwhelmingly backed Manila’s position against Beijing’s illegal claims in the South China Sea and to Philippine maritime territory.

Washington did nothing to help in 2012 and refused to help the Philippines enforce the 2016 PCA ruling. Manila felt betrayed. That’s two strikes; three strikes and you’re out.

Filipinos are presumably wondering exactly what is the benefit of its US mutual defense treaty and the more recent Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) that allows greater US military activity in the Philippines.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos increasingly runs the risk of political criticism saying he is a chump who moved the country close to America and was left hanging when help was really needed.

No more statements of concern and pronouncements of ironclad commitments.

Have US Navy ships and aircraft accompany Philippine boats on any and all missions in Philippine territory where the Chinese might interfere – and use force if necessary. Resupply Second Thomas Shoal using US ships and helicopters if necessary.

Don’t just resupply. Help the Philippines build a permanent structure on Second Thomas Shoal – and help them defend it.

And send the US Navy along with Philippine ships to Scarborough Shoal and remove all Chinese boats squatting in the area.

Make it clear to Beijing that if it wants a fight, it will get one. Nothing short of this will work.

The US should also apply pressure asymmetrically. Suspend the People’s Bank of China’s license to operate in the US dollar system for six months and ban all technology exports to China for six months as well.

No need to give a reason. They’ll know why. But isn’t all this “escalatory”?

Let China have its way with the Philippines at Second Thomas Shoal and elsewhere, and we’ll see “escalation” of an entirely different sort from the Chinese.

This all could have been avoided if the US had kept its promises earlier. Team Biden ought to give it a try.

Grant Newsham is a former US diplomat, a retired US Marine intelligence officer and the author of When China Attacks: A Warning To America.