The Daily Populous Saturday June 22nd, 2024 night edition
Authored by newsweek.com and submitted by SportsGod3

A Fox News poll has put Joe Biden two percentage points above Donald Trump with rural voters.

Biden scored 50 percent and Trump hit 48 percent, according to the survey, which the former president and many of his supporters have claimed is illegitimate.

Conservative commentator Charlie Kirk wrote on X, formerly Twitter: "Okay, I've been studying this new FOX NEWS poll, and I have concluded it's a complete outlier. They have Joe Biden winning rural voters 50-48% over Trump. There is no way that's possible. Zero."

Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene agreed, saying: "This Fox News poll is WRONG! My district is in rural northwest Georgia and it is SOLIDLY supporting Trump! Same with most of rural America! Smart people!"

Trump blasted the entire poll on Truth Social, calling it "trash" and accusing Fox News of "using a biased, Democrat-leaning sample of voters."

Despite the results, Fox News does cite its 2020 data, saying Trump generally does well with rural voters (+17).

Okay, I've been studying this new FOX NEWS poll, and I have concluded it's a complete outlier. They have Joe Biden winning rural voters 50-48% over Trump. There is no way that's possible. Zero. pic.twitter.com/3abJCfCM3g — Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) June 20, 2024

Pollster Lee Carter appeared on Fox News' Fox & Friends on Thursday and said he believes the poll is a "blip."

He added: "I don't think this is something that's long term. I think we saw these kinds of shifts in polls in 2016, but I think it's important to note that Donald Trump was never ever, ever...ahead in the polls in 2016 or 2020."

Newsweek contacted Fox News, via its corporate communications email address, to ask whether it has any response to those casting doubts on the poll.

The survey, which questioned 1,095 registered voters, puts Biden ahead of Trump by two points (50 percent for Biden and 48 per cent for Trump), for the first time since October.

It attributes this largely to changing views about the improving economy, with a record 31 percent approving of his handling of inflation and 41 percent approving of the economy.

Other factors which may have an influence include Trump's hush money trial conviction, for which he will be sentenced on July 11.

Trump said: "I am leading BIG in virtually every other poll, including in all of the key battleground states, like Wisconsin, where I just held a massive rally, and Pennsylvania, where I will be on Saturday.

President Joe Biden speaks at Dutch Creek Farms in Northfield, Minnesota, last November. A Fox poll says he is leading with rural voters. President Joe Biden speaks at Dutch Creek Farms in Northfield, Minnesota, last November. A Fox poll says he is leading with rural voters. AP

"Also, the #1 issue in this Country is not protecting democracy. It is INFLATION and IMMIGRATION! If it is protecting democracy, Trump is your best choice, because Crooked Joe Biden is the greatest threat to democracy in history with his Open Border and weaponization of our justice system against his political opponent, ME!

"Fox News polls have never treated me, or MAGA, fairly! Don't worry, we will WIN!!! Fox News should get rid of Paul Ryan, and get a new Pollster, but they won't...."

Trump, who has enjoyed the lead in most polls up until now, is indeed ahead in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, according to polls by Emerson College.

LeotiaBlood on June 21st, 2024 at 13:52 UTC »

Can we just vote now? I’d like to vote now. I’m tired.

xxLetheanxx on June 21st, 2024 at 13:36 UTC »

I live in rural America and maybe I have been seeing signs of this. I know there are way less trump signs and flags this year than any of the last what 8+ years now. Also many people who still support him seem ashamed. For years in normal conversation with people they just brought up trump even when off topic and completely unprovoked. Seriously you could be pumping gas minding your own business and the person on the other side of the pump would randomly start talking to you and it was always about trump or people being woke. Typical rightwing bullshit.

Not outside of a few diehards I don't hear or see it. Even some of the far right people in my family have seemed to chill on trump a bit. Mind you these people have never and will never vote for someone without an R in front of their name. But honestly it's nice that the groveling has subsided a bit.

AcademicPublius on June 21st, 2024 at 13:12 UTC »

This is why I'm not particularly enamored with polling right now.

The data that we're getting does not make a lick of sense, especially in crosstabs. Biden's not ahead with rural voters. Trump's not ahead with the youth. But rather than looking at that and saying, "Well, maybe we're doing modelling wrong", the pollsters generally say, "Well, the data can't be wrong, so let's try to explain away weird discrepancies by another means. Maybe things are just changing."

No. The modelling's wrong. Go back to the model and try to figure out where your weighting is screwing up.

Edit: Thanks for the award!