The Daily Populous Wednesday June 19th, 2024 morning edition
Authored by newsweek.com and submitted by Healthy_Block3036

About one in 20 people who voted for Donald Trump in the 2020 election plan to vote for Joe Biden in November's ballot, according to a poll.

The presumptive Republican presidential nominee is set to face the incumbent Democratic president in in November, and polls have so far shown that the results of the 2020 White House rematch will be tight, with the pair statistically tied or holding only marginal leads in a number of surveys.

Some polls, however, have pointed to a number of voters flipping from their 2020 ballot.

According to research by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, for instance, 5 percent of Trump 2020 voters now say they plan to vote for Biden in the upcoming election. This is more than the 3 percent of people who voted for Biden in 2020 who now say they plan to vote for Trump.

U.S. President Joe Biden joins G7 leaders as they gather to watch a parachute drop at San Domenico Golf Club - Borgo Egnazia during day one of the 50th G7 summit on June 13, 2024... U.S. President Joe Biden joins G7 leaders as they gather to watch a parachute drop at San Domenico Golf Club - Borgo Egnazia during day one of the 50th G7 summit on June 13, 2024 in Fasano, Italy. Five percent of voters who opted for the Republican in the 2020 election now intend to vote for his Democratic rival. More Photo by Antonio Masiello/Getty Images

Meanwhile, 83 percent of people who voted for Trump in 2020 said they intend to vote for him again while Biden retains the support of 79 percent of those who voted for him in the last election. Of those who did not vote in 2020, the candidates are tied—with both on 27 percent of the vote share in the poll.

Newsweek contacted representatives for Trump and Biden by email to comment on this story and will update it with any response.

The polling also shows that Biden is leading Trump by one point nationally, 41 percent to 40 percent. This marks his second-consecutive lead in Redfield & Wilton Strategies survey. Prior to those polls, Biden had not led Trump since June 2023, according to the firm.

Redfield & Wilton Strategies did not share their methodology and sample size for this poll and Newsweek has contacted them via their website form for further information.

The race for the White House is likely to be determined by a handful of key swing states, as the Electoral College system awards each state a certain number of votes based on population. A presidential candidate must secure 270 electoral votes for victory, and winning the national popular vote does not guarantee success.

Indeed, speaking to Newsweek, Heath Brown, an associate professor of public policy at City University of New York, said the polling numbers "look pretty close."

He added that it was interesting that the candidates are tied among those who did not vote in the 2020 election.

"This confirms for me that this race is just about tied right now," he said.

On June 27, Biden and Trump are set to square off in Atlanta for the first of two scheduled debates ahead of the general election on November 5.

ImpressionOld2296 on June 18th, 2024 at 21:53 UTC »

I keep seeing all these stats:

x% of conservatives will not vote for Trump if convicted of felony.

x% of conservatives plan to switch to Biden

x% of independents fed up with Trump

Etc, Etc... yet the polls never seem to budge or reflect this at all. What gives?

OsellusK on June 18th, 2024 at 20:38 UTC »

Best case scenario is high turnout, “uncommitted” voters realize Trump would be far worse, and that 5% actually switches to Biden. Trump loses, loses his mind, and there’s no choice but to finally put him behind bars.

I still don’t believe polls and I’m still voting against Trump.

Healthy_Block3036 on June 18th, 2024 at 20:37 UTC »

MAKE SURE TO VOTE!!! Polls are not always accurate. Voting is accurate!!!