President Joe Biden is the favorite to defeat Donald Trump in the 2024 election, according to a forecast model.
Polling and forecasting website 538, formerly FiveThirtyEight, said that when run through a prediction simulation, Biden won November's race 53 times out of 100, with Trump coming out on top 47 times out of 100.
The simulation forecast explores likely election outcomes based on several factors, including adjusted polling averages, economic and political indicators, and demographic data.
With less than five months to go until the 2024 election, Biden and Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, appear to be neck and neck in the rematch of the previous presidential race.
Biden, 81, is heading into November's election amid historically low approval ratings and ongoing concerns about his age.
Trump is also hoping to win a second term in office after becoming the first U.S. president in history to be convicted of a crime when a New York jury found him guilty of 34 felony counts during his hush money trial last month.
Joe Biden (L) in Wilmington, Delaware, and Donald Trump at the White House on November 4, 2020. Biden is currently the favorite to win the 2024 election, according to 538. Joe Biden (L) in Wilmington, Delaware, and Donald Trump at the White House on November 4, 2020. Biden is currently the favorite to win the 2024 election, according to 538. ANGELA WEISSMANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images
538 published their official forecast for the 2024 election on June 11, showing that Biden is currently just ahead in the close race.
The model predicts that Biden has a 53-in-100 chance of winning the election, slightly more than half the model's simulations of how the election could unfold. Trump is not far behind with a 47-in-100 chance, suggesting the election could still go either way between now and November.
"The range of realistic Electoral College outcomes generated by our forecasting model stretches from 132 to 445 electoral votes for Biden—a testament to how much things could change by November (and how off the polls could be)," G. Elliott Morris, a data journalist for 538, wrote while sharing details of the forecast.
The forecast notes that Trump is currently just ahead of Biden in the polls, including in the key swing states which could ultimately decide who wins the 2024 election.
Additional "fundamentals," such as changes in economic conditions and other political indicators, may favor Biden.
"To forecast the election, we rely primarily on polls asking voters whom they support," Morris added.
"However, our forecast also incorporates various economic and political indicators that aren't related to polling but can be used to make rough predictions for the election."
History also suggests that incumbent presidents do better when they run for reelection.
Predictions for the economy based on polls can also be skewed when political polarization is high, as it arguably currently is.
Historian and writer Varad Mehta wrote on X, formerly Twitter: "For the opposite view of the state of the presidential race, DDHQ has Trump as the slight favorite. The difference? 538 has Biden winning all three blue wall states, and DDHQ has Trump winning Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Which is what the polls show right now."
Lawyer James Debate wrote, "Biden narrowly favoured to win Presidential election according to 538's new forecast. I've been dunking a lot on 538 this cycle, but this is a surprisingly solid forecast and seems about right for the current polling."
In a second post, he said, "One thing I will say, though, is that they are probably over-estimating Kennedy's vote share. Polls historically tend to overrate third party candidates. 538 currently has him around 8%, but I would not be surprised if he ends up with half of that."
538 said it will rerun its forecast simulator every day between now and November's election and will update it depending on the latest data.
Update 06/11/24, 10:04 a.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
Rayearl on June 11st, 2024 at 13:03 UTC »
I just want this election to be over and hopefully be rid of trump forever. I know his maga goons will still be in congress but I'll take being rid of dear leader for good.
Datokah on June 11st, 2024 at 13:01 UTC »
The fact that a character like 'Trump' is even being considered by anyone should be a grave cause for concern.
Kernburner on June 11st, 2024 at 12:57 UTC »
53 wins out of 100 is not a comforting projection.