The Daily Populous Wednesday May 8th, 2024 evening edition
Authored by macroticker.com and submitted by StenoResearch

Rosenvold then discussed the recent U.S. aid packages to Ukraine and Israel, noting that while these would provide a temporary boost to Ukrainian defenses, the long-term outlook remains challenging. He highlighted Ukraine's significant ammunition shortages and the intense pressure they face on various front lines, particularly near Avdiivka. Although U.S. aid could help alleviate these issues temporarily, Rosenvold pointed out that the production capabilities of Russia and its allies far exceed those of the West.

A critical area of concern that Rosenvold addressed was the battle for air superiority. He noted that while Ukraine has historically been effective in countering Russian air forces, recent shortages have hampered its ability to maintain control over its airspace.

Introducing his "Pendulum of Initiative" model, Rosenvold illustrated the shifting momentum of the conflict. According to this model, Russia is likely to maintain the strategic initiative, significantly influencing the outcomes of its planned offensive operations.

Looking ahead, Rosenvold predicts a major Russian offensive in the summer of 2024, particularly targeting northern sectors around the city of Kharkiv. The outcome of this offensive could be pivotal, potentially setting the stage for peace negotiations in Autumn 2024. He speculated that if Ukraine withstands the summer offensive, it could open a window for negotiations. However, he also warned of the potential for continued Russian aggression if negotiations do not lead to a settlement, drawing parallels with other rapid military escalations seen in recent history, such as the Taliban’s swift takeover in Afghanistan.

ihadtomakeajoke on May 8th, 2024 at 09:11 UTC »

First, it’s still here, just a bit of a low time in the relationship but it’s not gone.

It likely will have a bump up sometime since it’s currently at a fairly low point relatively, but it will never be like it was before during the peak.

Unlike the other comment made on here saying it will depend hugely on the next president, I don’t see a huge, huge difference on the relationship no matter which president comes in the office - 90% of US-Saudi relationship is just oil-based and the policy by both parties on oil has been united now into a traditionally Republican stance.

We saw Biden increase oil production (not by a little, by a huge amount) at the chagrin of the Saudis trying to break ~$108/barrel, Trump won’t be the one to cut back oil production - no matter how unpredictable you think Trump might be, I think we can be pretty confident on this one.

Bottom line is, US will still want to be Saudi’s friend to maintain global energy prices, but Saudi is not in a situation where they can overplay their hand going forward (US is a huge net exporter now with massive production lead over Saudi Arabia). I think I’m fairly sure Saudis won’t start taking Yuan (en masse at least) in place of the dollar (why would they) and Saudi Arabia is already directly working against US energy policy by cutting production and we’re doing solid (WTI was like $78/barrel when I checked couple days ago), not too much more they can do from here to be annoying that’s realistic (again, only thing they can touch that could do US any real solid harm is the petrodollar system but they would have to massively piss off the US, a country strongly integrated with their national defense, and take a currency nobody can really trust & even then petrodollar is not what it once was with US having its own oil and oil exports.)

Long way of saying, relationship will likely not die until human need of massive oil supplies is near its end (sooner the better), but we can be safe to say Saudis won’t be able to shift US policy on ME with it to the degree they want or once did.

BooksandBiceps on May 8th, 2024 at 09:10 UTC »

Not going to bother reading a shitty source, but, anyone who knows anything about US foreign policy knows US-Saudi relations have never left and are possibly the most stable alliance in the region. Israel is a more important, but much less reliable and frequently detrimental partner and that has almost always been the case.

u5mankhal1d on May 8th, 2024 at 07:41 UTC »

I would say ... lets wait for US Presidential elections