A new Politico-Ipsos poll Tuesday showed Americans' perception of former President Donald Trump's criminal cases, with a notable shift among independents.
The poll, based on responses from 1,024 adults in the general U.S. population, found that about half of Americans believe that Trump is guilty in each of the four criminal cases he is facing: the Manhattan "hush money" case, the Mar-a-Lago documents case, the Georgia election interference case and the federal election interference case. Ipsos noted in its reports that the numbers are fairly steady compared to a similar poll from August 2023, conducted shortly after the most recent of the four indictments was brought.
Also steady were the results along party lines for Democrats and Republicans. Among respondents, those who identified as Democrats heavily favored the belief that Trump is guilty, ranging between 86 percent and 87 percent for each case. Republicans, conversely, favored the belief that Trump is not guilty, though to a less pronounced degree, between 60 percent and 67 percent for each case.
Former President Donald Trump in court on April 4 in New York City. A new poll shows notable shifts among independents toward the belief that Trump is guilty in some of his criminal cases. Former President Donald Trump in court on April 4 in New York City. A new poll shows notable shifts among independents toward the belief that Trump is guilty in some of his criminal cases. Timothy A. Clary/Pool/Getty Images
Independents, meanwhile, trended toward believing that Trump is guilty in each case, with between 53 percent and 58 percent saying so. This, notably, shows a considerable trend toward belief in Trump's guilt compared to another Ipsos poll from July 2023.
At the time the earlier poll was conducted, only the hush money and documents indictments had been brought against Trump. In that poll, only 36 percent of independent respondents said they believed Trump was guilty of a crime in the documents case, while the remainder said he was either not guilty or that they were unsure. For the hush money case, only 28 percent of respondents believed that Trump was guilty, while the remainder chose one of the other options.
Comparing the results from eight months ago to the most recent ones suggests that Special Counsel Jack Smith and Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg are having some success in convincing independents of the former president's guilt, even as other, partisan demographics remain the same.
Newsweek reached out to Trump's office via email on Tuesday afternoon for comment.
Bragg's office has charged Trump with falsifying business records in order to conceal "hush money" payments made to adult film star Stormy Daniels, with whom he allegedly had an affair in 2006.
In the documents case, Smith's office has charged Trump with unlawfully retaining classified documents with sensitive national security information after leaving the White House, storing them improperly at his Mar-a-Lago residence, and failing to return them when asked by the National Archives.
Trump has pleaded not guilty to all of the charges against him.