Since Kennedy announced he was leaving the Democratic race to run as an independent earlier this month, the debate has swirled over whom he would hurt more, the four-times-indicted ex-president or the incumbent.
But an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist National Poll released Tuesday offered an early prediction: Biden would beat Trump by 7 percentage points when Kennedy is factored in.
If the election were held today, Biden would snag 44% of the vote to Trump’s 37%, followed by Kennedy’s 16% with 3% undecided, according to the survey.
Kennedy, whose anti-vaccine views appeal to some conservatives, is simply siphoning off more votes from Trump than Biden.
With the political scion on the ballot, Biden loses 5 percentage points among Democrats while Trump loses 10 points among Republicans, according to the poll.
Kennedy, who’s gotten significant air time on Fox News and other conservative outlets, has been denounced by his own family, but come November 2024, he might just end up a darling for Democrats anyway.
“Although it’s always tricky to assess the impact of a third-party candidate, right now Kennedy alters the equation in Biden’s favor,” Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, said. “What this does speak to, however, is that about one in six voters are looking for another option, especially independents.”
CJKayak on October 18th, 2023 at 13:12 UTC »
Anecdote: I live in a red suburb in the south. A neighbor with multiple Trump yard signs in 2020, now has a big "Kennedy 2024" sign in his yard.
Any-Ad-446 on October 18th, 2023 at 13:01 UTC »
RFK just needs to peel 5% of Trumps voters and he is screwed so expect RFK to drop out if bribe is big enough.
OldBoots on October 18th, 2023 at 12:58 UTC »
Trump could probably get 100% of the unhinged vote if he were to have Bobby Jr. as a running mate.