Polling roundup: Trump has no realistic path to win a general election

While former President Donald Trump and his team try to build up his air of invincibility in the GOP presidential primary, the fact remains that he would be facing a near-certain loss in the general election.

A poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that 53% of people say they would definitely not support Trump in the general election, compared to 43% who say the same of President Joe Biden. A Fox News poll has Trump with a lower favorability than Biden among important swing groups, including independents, suburban voters (and especially suburban women), and undecided voters.

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Fox News Poll: Net Favorability Ratings

Fox News (A-) | 08/11-14 | 1,002 RV pic.twitter.com/g2bHBRRI7T — InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 17, 2023

On top of it all, an ABC News/Ipsos poll found that 50% of people think Trump should suspend his campaign in light of the indictments in Georgia, which people think are more serious than those in New York City and Florida.

So what is the plan to beat Biden, the unpopular old man that people don’t want to see win and yet still picked over Trump in 2020 and still like more than Trump today? Trump’s favorability is not magically going to change any time soon because everyone knows everything about him already.

Even now, Quinnipiac and Marist both have Trump trailing Biden 47%-46%. That is not impressive or something Trump’s team can cite as proof he can win. Rasmussen has 63% of likely voters saying the country is headed in the wrong direction. People dislike Biden, the economy, and the current state of the country, and Trump is still losing with a nearly negligible pool of persuadable voters who also like Biden more than Trump.

What is there left for Trump to do that could turn the race around? Any of the other GOP candidates, including the F-tier ones that will never break single digits in the primary, could beat Biden in a debate. The juxtaposition of any of the younger candidates next to Biden, who will be 81 and looks and speaks worse than his age, would probably be enough on its own to win the election.

But Trump has no such advantages. He is 77, already a mediocre debater at best, and evidently aware of that fact given how afraid he is to take part in the GOP primary debates. On top of that, Trump already had the opportunity to expose Biden’s age and cognitive decline in debates three years ago. He failed, then lost the election.

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How is any of this supposed to have changed in the last three years?

Trump’s 2024 campaign is nothing more than a kamikaze run at the Republican Party, destroying its chances of winning back the White House, winning and holding Congress, and allowing a new generation of leadership to fight the Democratic Party’s agenda. He has offered no plan to win a general election, and he never will because such a plan does not exist in reality.