Several indicators suggest that a drone strike against the Kremlin on May 3 was internally conducted and purposefully staged by Russia, the Institute for the Study of War said in its latest update.
Russian authorities have recently taken steps to increase Russian domestic air defense capabilities, including within Moscow itself. "It is extremely unlikely that two drones could have penetrated multiple layers of air defense and detonated or been shot down just over the heart of the Kremlin in a way that provided spectacular imagery caught nicely on camera," reads the analysis.
Geolocated imagery from January 2023 shows that Russian authorities have been placing Pantsir air defense systems near Moscow to create air defense circles around the city.
"A strike that avoided detection and destruction by such air defense assets and succeeded in hitting as high-profile of a target as the Kremlin Senate Palace would be a significant embarrassment for Russia," the ISW said. The Kremlin’s immediate, coherent, and coordinated response to the incident suggests that the attack was internally prepared in such a way that its intended political effects outweigh its embarrassment.
The Kremlin immediately accused Ukraine of conducting a terror attack, and Russian official responses coalesced rapidly around this accusation, according to the ISW.
"If the drone attack had not been internally staged it would have been a surprise event," the ISW said, adding that the Kremlin has notably failed to generate a timely and coherent informational response to other military humiliations not of its own making, including the falls of Balakliya and Kherson in September and November 2022.
zombo_pig on May 4th, 2023 at 17:46 UTC »
ISW's recent reporting on UAF seizing territory on the Dnipro's west bank south of Kherson conflated a recon in force into a swamp with UAF making real headway and establishing a beachhead. There's a really big difference between publishing shaded maps and understanding the situation on the ground and ISW is increasingly getting it wrong. They're certainly not the worst, but they're having spotty issues with their quality lately (they used to be pretty great as far as legacy) and this unfortunately seems like a trend where 'OSINT' accounts claim something happened - often unverified rumors - and someone reports it as fact to be first on the story and/or create daily updates to keep up viewership.
This isn't strong analysis, either. It fails on pretty basic facts: 1) There were two drones, not one, 2) The first drone hit 13 minutes before the 2nd, which completely explains the two workers on the roof, 3) It could have not been a false flag and they didn't even entertain that possibility.
As for #3 ... I think there's some pretty good arguments this isn't a false flag. 1) They should have picked a false flag that didn't make them look so excruciatingly weak/inept, 2) It may pressure Russia to make unwanted decisions. Russia doesn't have escalatory power to leverage this into worthwhile or productive action. Major offensives to take territory are wasteful and costly when Russia should be reserving troops to counter a Ukrainian counteroffensive. Beefing up Moscow's AA networks takes equipment away from where it is otherwise needed. Terrorizing Ukrainian civilian centers (this appears to be their choice - esp. around Kherson, but now also Kyiv) doesn't seem very effective. It's hard to imagine a response that will strengthen Russia. 3) Ukrainian leaders are already saying it could be partisan action, which the HUR is actively (and often independently) pursuing inside Russia.
EarlHammond on May 4th, 2023 at 13:24 UTC »
https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-accuses-us-being-behind-alleged-kremlin-drone-attack-2023-05-04/
This article has been the clearest indicator yet that they were indeed staged. Firstly, Russia had a response prepared and ready unlike all their other spectacular failures during the course of this conflict. That's most unusual and covenient.
Second, they are directly accusing the US with zero evidence. As if the narrative was pre-planned and pre-written. We've seen the US do the exact opposite time and again in this conflict to prevent Ukraine from striking Russian territory. The US has received a lot of criticism from others on not allowing Ukraine to strike back at Russia. In fact after the Dugina assassination, the US put even more pressure on the Ukrainians to not do anymore operations inside the country and they begrudgingly acquiesced due to the flow of money and supplies being far more important than clandestine Russian operations.
Finally the video itself is more than strange. The payload is exceptionally small for the drone's size. The way it hits the building, where it hits the building, the men on the roof of the building watching. So much is very strange and inconsistent at best.
This event doesn't align with US or Ukrainian goals in any natural sense. It does however align with Russia's long and storied history of staging terrorist attacks and bombings against their own citizens to manufacture outrage and consent for violence.
koopcl on May 4th, 2023 at 13:07 UTC »
1999 Apartment Bombings 2: Electric Boogaloo