Several indicators suggest that a drone strike against the Kremlin on May 3 was internally conducted and purposefully staged by Russia, the Institute for the Study of War said in its latest update.
Russian authorities have recently taken steps to increase Russian domestic air defense capabilities, including within Moscow itself. "It is extremely unlikely that two drones could have penetrated multiple layers of air defense and detonated or been shot down just over the heart of the Kremlin in a way that provided spectacular imagery caught nicely on camera," reads the analysis.
Geolocated imagery from January 2023 shows that Russian authorities have been placing Pantsir air defense systems near Moscow to create air defense circles around the city.
"A strike that avoided detection and destruction by such air defense assets and succeeded in hitting as high-profile of a target as the Kremlin Senate Palace would be a significant embarrassment for Russia," the ISW said. The Kremlin’s immediate, coherent, and coordinated response to the incident suggests that the attack was internally prepared in such a way that its intended political effects outweigh its embarrassment.
The Kremlin immediately accused Ukraine of conducting a terror attack, and Russian official responses coalesced rapidly around this accusation, according to the ISW.
"If the drone attack had not been internally staged it would have been a surprise event," the ISW said, adding that the Kremlin has notably failed to generate a timely and coherent informational response to other military humiliations not of its own making, including the falls of Balakliya and Kherson in September and November 2022.
EarlHammond on May 4th, 2023 at 13:24 UTC »
https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-accuses-us-being-behind-alleged-kremlin-drone-attack-2023-05-04/
This article has been the clearest indicator yet that they were indeed staged. Firstly, Russia had a response prepared and ready unlike all their other spectacular failures during the course of this conflict. That's most unusual and covenient.
Second, they are directly accusing the US with zero evidence. As if the narrative was pre-planned and pre-written. We've seen the US do the exact opposite time and again in this conflict to prevent Ukraine from striking Russian territory. The US has received a lot of criticism from others on not allowing Ukraine to strike back at Russia. In fact after the Dugina assassination, the US put even more pressure on the Ukrainians to not do anymore operations inside the country and they begrudgingly acquiesced due to the flow of money and supplies being far more important than clandestine Russian operations.
Finally the video itself is more than strange. The payload is exceptionally small for the drone's size. The way it hits the building, where it hits the building, the men on the roof of the building watching. So much is very strange and inconsistent at best.
This event doesn't align with US or Ukrainian goals in any natural sense. It does however align with Russia's long and storied history of staging terrorist attacks and bombings against their own citizens to manufacture outrage and consent for violence.
koopcl on May 4th, 2023 at 13:07 UTC »
1999 Apartment Bombings 2: Electric Boogaloo
KI_official on May 4th, 2023 at 11:29 UTC »
Submission Statement:
Several indicators suggest that a drone strike against the Kremlin on May 3 was internally conducted and purposefully staged by Russia, the Institute for the Study of War said in its latest update. "It is extremely unlikely that two drones could have penetrated multiple layers of air defense and detonated or been shot down just over the heart of the Kremlin in a way that provided spectacular imagery caught nicely on camera," reads the analysis.