The Observer view on the growing threat to democracy in India | Observer editorial

India has many things going for it these days but the growing authoritarianism of prime minister Narendra Modi’s rightwing Hindu nationalist government is not one of them. The economy has rebounded faster than most after the Covid-19 slump, according to the IMF and the World Bank. Annual GDP is projected to overtake Germany and Japan by 2027, making India the world’s third largest economy after the US and China.

UN figures published last week indicate India will become the planet’s most populous country by June, with a population of 1.4286 billion compared with China’s 1.4257 billion. The significance of this shift is geopolitical as well as economic. In a world dominated by great power rivalries and blocs, India stands out as an independent force in global affairs, drawing on a proud post-1947 history of non-alignment. Contrasted with the creaking economies, fading influence and ageing populations of western countries such as Britain, the former colonial power’s future looks bright indeed. Yet all this potential is set at risk by Modi’s divisive and destructive actions. He and his ruling Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) pose a fundamental threat to that other crucial pillar of Indian progress: democratic governance based on the rule of law, civil rights and freedom of speech.

Evidence to support this contention is plentiful. For example, the continuing defamation proceedings against Rahul Gandhi, one of India’s most prominent opposition leaders and a scion of its best-known political dynasty. Gandhi faces jail and the loss of his parliamentary seat after a court in Gujarat, where Modi long presided as chief minister, ruled against him. It is difficult not to view this case as politically motivated.

Modi’s re-definition of India as a Hindu nation has intensified discrimination against minorities, especially Muslims

Since winning national power in 2014, Modi and the BJP have pursued an accelerating, repressive and intimidatory campaign against opponents, independent media organisations, individual journalists, civil society groups and free speech in general. A recent target is the BBC, accused of harbouring a “colonial mindset” after it investigated Modi’s links to a notorious 2002 anti-Muslim pogrom in Gujarat in which at least 1,000 people died.

Modi’s abandonment of the secular legacy of Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first prime minister, and his redefinition of India as a Hindu nation has intensified discrimination against minorities, especially Muslims. Schoolbooks are doctored to remove references to Mahatma Gandhi’s opposition to Hindu nationalism and to pre-Raj (Muslim) Mughal rulers.

“For most Indians,” the author Arundhati Roy wrote recently, religious persecution is “the texture of our daily lives: sword-wielding mobs, saffron-clad god-men routinely calling for the genocide of Muslims and the mass rape of Muslim women, the impunity with which Hindus can lynch Muslims on the street... [and be] congratulated for it by senior ministers.” Impunity continues, judging by last week’s acquittal of 69 Hindus accused of many murder in the Gujarat pogrom.

Gross human rights abuses in Kashmir, the only Muslim-majority state, corruption allegations swirling around the Gautam Adani business empire and “state capture” by industrial conglomerates are other aspects of a growing democratic deficit. Yet the all-controlling Modi machine appears unstoppable. India will vote next year. Modi, the BJP, and their ugly brand of intolerant Hindu hyper-nationalism look set to win again.

India’s friends have a duty to speak up. The US and Britain, like other western democracies, have been too ready to overlook Modi’s authoritarian trajectory as they seek his backing in their battles with Russia and China. This is short-sighted. They should be braver. Democracy in India is a global asset. Its loss would be a global tragedy.