Young Democrats are flocking to register to vote in Texas after abortion ruling, data shows

Authored by houstonchronicle.com and submitted by misana123

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In Texas, it’s not just women who are fired up about access to abortion and registering to vote in large numbers following this summer's historic Supreme Court decision striking down Roe v. Wade.

A new analysis from political data and polling firm TargetSmart found that while Texas’ new voter registrants are evenly split between men and women, they are younger and more Democratic than before the June ruling.

“It’s not that we’re not seeing a surge from women but that in Texas, we’re somewhat uniquely also seeing a surge from men, particularly younger, more progressive men, who are matching the surge from women,” said CEO Tom Bonier, whose firm works with Democratic and progressive candidates.

IN-DEPTH: Over 70% of young people call themselves pro-choice, but can Texas Democrats count on their votes?

“I would expect to see that trend develop more in other states as we get closer to the election, but it was interesting to see Texas as first in that sense.”

The state added about 300,000 new voters from June 24, the day of the high court's ruling, to late August, state data shows. Prior to the ruling, about 51 percent of voters identified as female, and after the ruling, slightly less than half, or 49 percent, demarcated they were female. Gender is an optional field on voter registration forms.

According to TargetSmart, Democrats now have a 10-percentage point advantage among new registrants since the high court's decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, making up 42 percent to Republicans’ 32 percent. Prior to Dobbs, Republicans had a five-point advantage.

The state’s young voters — defined as those under age 25 — are also leaning more blue, the analysis found. Democrats now make up 47 percent of young Texas voters, up from 34 percent. The Republican share has remained the same at just under 30 percent.

That’s in line with what TargetSmart is seeing in 25 states that report party registration. In Texas, the firm uses a variety of data, including past primary participation and consumer demographic data, to identify likely Democratic and Republican voters.

Whether the registration trend will translate to high turnout of young voters is still yet to be seen. The group had tended to turn out at low rates compared to other age groups, but that trend started to turn around nationally and in Texas in 2018.

That midterm election year, with the rise in popularity of Democrat Beto O’Rourke amid his campaign for U.S. Senate, turnout among 18- to 29-year-olds more than tripled from about 8 percent in 2014 to about 26 percent.

“No one knows if that’ll be the case in 2022,” Bonier said. “But there is reason to be optimistic that these younger voters are much more highly energized than they have been in past.”

Bonier added that new voter registrants tend to have a higher turnout rate than those already registered.

Stephanie Gómez, political director of MOVE Texas, a progressive nonprofit focused on mobilizing young voters, said the high numbers of progressive young people registering to vote lines up with what she sees working with that demographic everyday. Gómez said she often has to remind national political organizers that the old norm of young voters being apathetic is no longer true in Texas.

“Dobbs was a big one for a lot of people,” Gómez said. “Everyone has that moment where they realize this is the call to action, this is the call to democratic participation, and I just think for a lot of people, a lot of young Texans, they went to bed one night, and they woke up the next day and they had less rights. I certainly felt that.”

MOVE Texas plans to hold about a dozen events on college campuses for National Voter Registration Day on Sept. 20, one of many efforts by the group to encourage young voter participation.

Genevieve Carter, communications director for Texas Young Republicans, said it’s no surprise that Democrats are pinning their hopes on a backlash against the Dobbs decision to drive turnout, but that’s out of touch with Texans’ priorities.

While many young conservatives are passionate about the abortion issue, she said, they’re overall more energized by “issues that really affect day-to-day life.”

“Inflation rising and the cost of goods as well as crime,” Carter said. “Those are the two biggest issues across Texas.”

Carter said Texas Young Republicans is seeing record increases in membership and participation in block-walking and campaigning for candidates up and down the ballot.

TargetSmart’s analysis showed that women were registering to vote at higher rates than men particularly in states where abortion access is at risk or has been eliminated.

The first and most dramatic disparity surfaced in Kansas, where voters last month rejected a constitutional amendment that would have banned abortion there. After the Dobbs decision, 69 percent of new registrants in that state were women.

Several battleground states also showed large increases, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio.

EnTyme53 on September 8th, 2022 at 23:35 UTC »

I've lived in a deep red Texas district almost my entire life, and something happened yesterday that has never happened before: Abbott's campaign knocked on my door to poll my house. Motherfucker is so scared, he's campaigning in Amarillo.

Edit For those asking, I told the kid I wasn't interested in the poll because 1) I've been feeling sick all week, and 2) he looked pathetically anxious, and I genuinely felt sorry for him.

Krabbi on September 8th, 2022 at 21:26 UTC »

And Ohio is number one in the number of women that have registered to vote since Roe passed. Go Texas, go Ohio.

ctguy54 on September 8th, 2022 at 21:05 UTC »

Registration is great, voting is better.