Officials in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk announce plans for a vote to join Russia, but no date set

According to Russian state TV, the future of the Ukrainian regions captured by Moscow's forces is all but decided — referendums on becoming part of Russia will soon take place there, and the joyful residents who were abandoned by Kyiv will be able to prosper in peace.

Key points: Some estimates say Russia and the separatists control about 60 per cent of the Donetsk region

Some estimates say Russia and the separatists control about 60 per cent of the Donetsk region Several Moscow-linked politicians have given conflicting dates for the vote

Several Moscow-linked politicians have given conflicting dates for the vote The Moscow-installed administration in Zaporizhzhia has ordered an election commission to prepare for a referendum

In reality, the Kremlin appears to be in no rush to seal the deal on Ukraine's southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, even though officials it installed there already have announced plans for a vote to join Russia.

As the war in Ukraine nears its six-month mark, Moscow faces multiple problems in the territory it occupies.

From pulverised civilian infrastructure that needs urgent rebuilding as colder weather looms, to guerilla resistance and increasingly debilitating attacks by Kyiv's military forces that have been gearing up for a counteroffensive in the south.

Analysts said that what could have been a clear victory for the Kremlin is becoming something of a muddle.

"It is clear that the situation won't stabilise for a long time," even if referendums eventually are held, says Nikolai Petrov, a senior research fellow in Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia Program.

"There will be the guerilla movement, there will be underground resistance, there will be terrorist acts, there will be shelling.

"Right now, the impression is that even the Kremlin doesn't really believe that by holding these referendums, it would draw a thick line under it."

Moscow's plans to incorporate captured territories were clear from the outset of the February 24 invasion.

Several weeks in, separatist leaders of the self-proclaimed "people's republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk, which the Kremlin recognised as independent states, voiced plans to hold votes on becoming part of Russia

While forces backed by Moscow control almost all of Luhansk, some estimates say Russia and the separatists control about 60 per cent of the Donetsk region.

Similar announcements followed from Kremlin-backed administrations of the southern Kherson region, which is almost completely occupied by Russians, and in the Zaporizhzhia region, large swaths of which are under Moscow's control.

Moscow prepares referendum but officials unsure of date

Civilians gathered fresh water distributed by the Russian Emergency Situations Ministry in Mariupol, in May. ( AP: Alexei Alexandrov/File )

While the Kremlin coyly said it was up to the residents to decide whether they formally want to live in Russia or Ukraine, lower-level officials talked about possible dates for the balloting.

Senior politician Leonid Slutksy once mentioned July, although it did not occur.

Vladimir Rogov, a Moscow-installed official in the Zaporizhzhia region, suggested the first half of September.

Kirill Stremousov, a Kremlin-backed official in Kherson, talked about scheduling it before the end of the year.

As summer wanes, there is still no date for the referendums.

Pro-Russian officials in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia said the votes will take place after Moscow takes full control of the rest of the Donetsk region, but the Kremlin's gains there have been minimal recently.

Still, campaigns promoting the votes are reportedly well underway.

Russian TV shows cities with billboards proclaiming: "Together with Russia."

In the Russian-controlled part of Zaporizhzhia, the Moscow-installed administration already has ordered an election commission to prepare for a referendum.

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Balloting aside, there are other signs that Russia is planning on staying.

The rouble has been introduced alongside the Ukrainian hryvnia and has been used to pay out pensions and other benefits.

Russian passports were offered to residents in a fast-track citizenship procedure.

Schools were reported to have switched to a Russian curriculum, starting in September.

Russian license plates were given to car owners by traffic police, with Kherson and Zaporizhzhia assigned Russian region numbers 184 and 185.

Ukrainian authorities say most people have left seized cities

Many of those who have fled the war have donated items such as medicines, clothes, and personal belongings to their relatives in territories occupied by Russia. ( AP: Andriy Andriyenko )

Ukrainian officials and activists, meanwhile, paint a picture that contrasts sharply with the Russian TV portrayal of a bright future for the occupied territories under Moscow's generous care.

Luhansk Governor Serhiy Haidai told the AP news wire that 90 per cent of the population in the province's large cities has left.

Devastation and squalor "reigns" in the cities and towns seized by Russia, he said, and there were only a few villages not under Moscow's control after weeks of exhausting battles.

Residents use "water from puddles" and build "a bonfire in the yard to cook food on, right next to garbage, according to Mr Haidai.

"Our people that manage to return home to collect their belongings don't recognise towns and villages that used to blossom," he added.

The situation isn't as dire in the southern city of Kherson, which sits just north of the Crimean Peninsula that Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014, according to pro-Ukrainian activist Konstantin Ryzhenko.

Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov says more than 500 people remain captive in the city. ( Reuters: Alexander Ermochenko )

Kherson was captured without much destruction early in the war, so most of its infrastructure is intact.

But supplies of essential goods have been uneven, and prices for food and medicine brought in from Russia have spiked, Mr Ryzhenko said, adding that both are of "disgustingly low quality."

Early in the war, thousands of Kherson residents regularly protested the occupation, but mass repressions forced many either to flee the city or to hide their views.

"Demonstrations have been impossible since May. If you publicly express anything pro-Ukrainian, an opinion on whatever subject, you are guaranteed to be taken into detention, tortured and beaten there," Mr Ryzhenko said.

Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov, whose city in the Zaporizhzhia region also was occupied early in the war, echoed Mr Ryzhenko's sentiment.

Mass arrests and purges of activists and opinion-makers with pro-Kyiv views began in May, said Mr Fedorov, who spent time in Russian captivity for refusing to cooperate.

More than 500 people in Melitopol remain in captivity, he said.

Despite that intimidation, he estimated that only about 10 per cent of those who remain in the city would vote to join Russia if a referendum takes place.

"The idea of a referendum has discredited itself," Mr Fedorov said.

Ukrainian forces continue sporadic resistance against Russia in the Kherson region. ( AP )

Russian political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin said that because so many people have left the occupied regions, "there will be nothing close to a proper polling of the population about their preferences".

But Ukrainian authorities still have to regard such votes as a serious issue, said Vadim Karasev, head of the Kyiv-based Institute of Global Strategies think tank.

He said the Kremlin might also be using the threat of referendums to pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to agree to negotiations on Moscow's conditions or else risk "losing the south" and a large part of its vital access to the sea.

Mr Zelenskyy has said that if Moscow goes ahead with the votes, there will be no talks of any kind.

In the meantime, Ukrainian forces continue sporadic strikes against the Russian military in the Kherson region.

On Thursday, Ukraine's Operational Command South reported killing 29 "occupiers" near the town of Bilohirka, northeast of Kherson, as well as destroying artillery, armoured vehicles and a military supply depot.

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