Zelensky adviser: Ukraine can win war in '3 to 6 months' if it gets heavy weapons soon

Authored by france24.com and submitted by Saltedline
image for Zelensky adviser: Ukraine can win war in '3 to 6 months' if it gets heavy weapons soon

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, spoke to FRANCE 24 a day after the visit of the French, German, Italian and Romanian leaders to Kyiv and Irpin. While welcoming this display of European unity with Ukraine, Podolyak called for more heavy weapons to be sent to his country. He said that such a move would change the situation on the ground in favour of the Ukrainian troops, faced with Russian advances in the eastern Donbas region.

Podolyak, a former journalist who became an adviser to Zelensky after the February 24 Russian invasion of Ukraine, reacted to Thursday's visit by the leaders of France, Germany, Italy and Romania, hailing it as a symbol of a united Europe standing behind Ukraine.

However, he urged European countries to send more heavy weapons to the Ukrainian army, adding that this was key to a Ukrainian victory in the coming months.

The presidential adviser also discussed the somewhat ambiguous position of French President Emmanuel Macron, who wants to maintain dialogue with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. While saying that he understood Macron's position, Podolyak warned against ceding any Ukrainian territory to Russia.

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3_DUCKS on June 18th, 2022 at 12:58 UTC »

“Home by Christmas”

Maeglin75 on June 18th, 2022 at 11:57 UTC »

I don't want to disagree with Zelensky's advisers, but everyone should be aware of the daunting task of arming Ukraine.

It is not enough to just dump the weapon systems on the Ukrainian border.

As an an example:

It was said that Ukraine needs 300 MLRS. Let's say 150 HIMARS and M270 each. That's 450 rocket pod containers (RPC) per salvo fired. Each RPC weighs 2.5 tons. That's 1125 tons (more than 30 big trucks or 2 freight trains) that have to be transported and distributed throughout Ukraine for each and every salvo. With all the complex coordination needed to ensure the ammunition is in the right place at the right time. All while the Russian armed forces are doing their best to interrupt it.

And the MRLS should probably be able to fire a lot more salvos a day, otherwise you don't need that many of them.

This explains why, for example, the USA only deliver 5 HIMARS in the first step, although they have hundreds of them available. The necessary logistics chain must first be built up step by step in Ukraine before more MLRS would even make sense.

And that was just the ammunition for the MLRS. You also need fuel, spare parts, etc.

The other heavy weapon systems (battle tanks, self-propelled howitzers, etc.), which also have to be delivered, also consume enormous supplies and, incidentally, the entire Ukrainian army with its lighter and Soviet-era weapons must remain combat-capable.

TobyReasonLives on June 18th, 2022 at 06:35 UTC »

I have doubts this war will have any winners.