A tractor piles wheat grains on a drying complex at the Solgonskoye farming company near the village of Talniki, southwest from Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, August 27, 2015. REUTERS/Ilya Naymushin
March 10 (Reuters) - Russia will suspend exports of wheat, meslin, rye, barley and corn to the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) until Aug 31 in a move to secure its home market with enough food, the economy ministry said on Thursday.
Russia will also ban sugar exports to third countries until Aug 31 but some exceptions would be possible for the EEU countries, membership of which comprises Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia itself, the ministry added.
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Patch95 on March 11st, 2022 at 00:34 UTC »
Somewhere else for the west or China to try and supplant Russian influence?
We saw Russian troops used to suppress protests in Kazakhstan not long. Might opposition groups (and one might think some Western security organizations) take advantage of Russia's security issues to turn the screws in other areas? Russia might not be able to deal well with multiple domestic crises turning up in their neighboring countries who relied on them previously.
I predict there might be more pressure brought forth in Syria, Kazakhstan, and probably economic incentives for Armenia.
Armenia is made tricky by Azerbaijan and Turkey's partnership, as supporting it could be seen as interfering with a crucial NATO ally's sphere of influence.
I'm not sure what avenues there might be for the West in Georgia, maybe they'll support joining the rugby six nations? If you start having rugby fans travelling there they might be more inclined to support more European integration (mainly joking).
Consistent_Dirt1499 on March 10th, 2022 at 23:09 UTC »
The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is basically Russia's effort at setting up its own version of the EU. The Ukrainian crisis was originally started by Ukraine going for an association agreement with the EU instead of joining the EAEU. Up until this point, the EAEU was quietly progressing in the kind of three steps forward, two steps back pattern the EU exhibits.
There are two important questions here (at least as far as I'm concerned). The first question is what the effects be on food security in Central Asia will be. The sanctions on Russia were already going to cause harm to these states. I can't imagine this will help stability in this region, and it'll likely be Russia or China who'll end up having to deal with any messes made.
The second is the what the effects on the EAEU will be. As far as I can see, this could quite easily kill the EAEU. Just as the sanctions on Russia could be thought of as being like a much more severe version of Brexit insofar as they basically wreck trade between Russia and the EU, Russia's recent actions can be thought of as a much more severe version of the selfishness displayed by big EU member states. You can't be in a customs union with Russia if it's going to refuse to sell you food like this.
And this is before we get to how Russia's turning its economy into Venezuela with constant threats to seize assets and trademarks belonging to Western companies. In principle, Kazakhstan and Armenia are in danger of getting flooded with counterfeit goods made in Russia, which would lead to consignments from their country headed to Europe being subjected to much more scrutiny. Remember that Ukraine choose Europe because they didn't want to be economically tethered to Russia. You'd have to wonder if EAEU member states are making similar calculations if Russia's going to end up with a smaller GDP than Denmark due to a combination of macroeconomic populism, fighting a war, and sanctions. Will Belarus be happy to be part of the EAEU when (not if) their economy takes severe damage?
In a similar vein, what will people in Abkhazia and Donetsk think a year from now?
EDIT: It seems that Armenia gets around 90% of its grain from Russia. One would wonder if any food aid from the EU/US/Turkey might be contingent on Armenia leaving the CSTO if the war in Ukraine continues.
AgnosticAsian on March 10th, 2022 at 22:59 UTC »
Eurasian Spring?