The diplomatic solution to prevent a Russian invasion of Ukraine

The last time a sovereign state invaded Ukraine, eight million Ukrainians died. As peace-loving people, it is our moral duty to do everything we can to prevent another invasion from taking place. Yet sending Canadian weapons to Ukraine would only increase the probability of such an outcome.

As geographically privileged participants, luxuriating in the thousands of miles that separate our borders and theirs, North Americans can sometimes fall into the bad habit of rationalizing our military activity in terms of justifiable violence. But this should never be the first thing we consider when lives are at stake. Rather, the prudent and ethical course of reasoning is to first consider justifiable non-violence.

Canada providing lethal aid to Ukraine would not be an endeavour in non-violence. Misguided deterrence efforts such as these are more likely to incite a military response than dissuade one.

If Russia mounts an invasion in Ukraine it will be because of the latter’s military co-ordination with Western states, not in spite of it. Any such aid from Western powers will be taken as a sign of NATO integration and could actually provide a casus belli.

A diplomatic solution is the only tenable path forward if we are to commit ourselves to ethical global leadership. In absolute terms, the moral argument for diplomacy is clear: standing down will lead to less death and human suffering.

Although the idea of a Just Peace emanates from Catholic liturgy, the moral force of justified non-violence does not rest solely on theological grounds. If dialogue and concessions can save an additional life, then it’s the route that ought to be taken. It is a simple utilitarian calculus. But in Ottawa, where there is no pacifistic voice in power, such a position is as radical as it is simple.

Unfortunately, the security dilemma we find ourselves in has, in large part, been caused by liberal-institutional illusions. Western powers want to welcome Ukraine into a community of democratic allies and keep the door to NATO ascension open. Canada and its allies are falsely motivated by the belief that institutional force can deter power-seeking states from aggression, yet all the military aid in the world is not going to stop Russia from invading Ukraine if that is their objective.

The Kremlin deserves no sympathy, and we cannot kowtow to their demands. But we must acknowledge them, and use diplomatic means to seek a stable compromise and avoid a war that the Ukrainian people will disproportionately bear the brunt of. Doing so is not capitulation as much as it is an act of calculated humanitarian compassion.

Canadian leadership must refrain from antagonizing an aggressive state actor. We must not supply arms, provide materiel aid, nor participate in training exercises on Ukrainian soil. In the event of open conflict, the rules change. But until then, Canadians’ key priority ought to be keeping Russia within its borders.

Western leaders could renounce their intent to allow Ukraine into NATO, at zero material cost, and likely end this crisis overnight. For Kyiv’s part, it should proclaim itself formally neutral vis-a-vis Russian or Western collective security alliances. In exchange for collective defence guarantees, Russia can stand down and begin the long road toward demobilization.

Effective diplomacy may require the suspension of our belief in a perfectly ordered, liberal democratic system in which all come to the defence of all. Doing so holds moral repercussions that cannot be overlooked. Yet morality and ethics have taken a back seat to strategy, tactics, and ideological manoeuvring.

Here in Ukraine, the mood is stoic and seemingly unbothered. The Christmas markets have only just shuttered for the season and children are back in school. Life is continuing as normal. There have been no public demonstrations, and there is no visible outward hostility in the air.

There are many possible outcomes to the crisis in Ukraine. It may be that the one resulting in the lowest humanitarian cost is one in which Canada and its allies do not get everything they want.

Liam Hunt is a Canadian writer living in Ukraine. He is a published scholar in international relations and received a master’s degree in political science from Dalhousie University in 2017. He writes at goodperson.substack.com